Russian forces conducted a limited drone strike against Ukraine on the night of April 15-16.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched nine Shahed-136/131 drones from occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea, and that Ukrainian forces destroyed all the drones over Kherson, Mykolaiv, Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, Cherkasy, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[72] Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Colonel Nataliya Humenyuk noted that the Russian strike series on the night of April 15-16 consisted of a smaller number of drones than recent strikes.[73]
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- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that continued shortages in air defense systems and artillery are preventing Ukraine from effectively defending itself against Russian strikes and ground assaults.
- Zelensky signed a new mobilization law on April 16, codifying a difficult but critical decision in Ukraine’s efforts to stabilize its force generation apparatus and adequately prepare the Ukrainian fighting force both defensively and offensively.
- Russian forces in eastern Ukraine are using smaller groups to conduct assaults and are reportedly suffering from morale issues, but Russian attacks are unlikely to culminate in the near term despite these challenges because of Ukrainian materiel shortages.
- A Russian Storm-Z instructor argued that Russian forces should capitalize on Ukrainian disadvantages brought on by materiel shortages to increase Russian guided glide bomb strikes to support Russian ground operations.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to show support for Iranian aggression against Israel during a March 16 call with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.
- People’s Republic of China (PRC) President and General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Xi Jinping met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on April 16 and proposed prerequisites for the end to the war in Ukraine in a manner that suggests that Xi is continuing to posture himself as a neutral mediator in the war despite increasing reports of China’s support for the Russian war effort.
- Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) recently destroyed a Russian Nebo-U long-range radar station in Bryansk Oblast.
- The Kremlin continues to centralize authority over Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s “Akhmat” Spetsnaz forces via the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
- Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor is considering banning TikTok in Russia.
- Russian forces made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on April 16.
- The Republic of Tatarstan is reportedly preparing a new youth employment program that would allow minors aged 14 and older to work at Russian defense industrial base (DIB) enterprises, likely as part of an ongoing effort to expand the Russian DIB.
- Russian occupation officials are using the education system, particularly history courses, to Russify Ukrainian children living in occupied areas.
Ukrainian forces continued to hold some positions in westernmost Ivanivske (southeast of Chasiv Yar). Geolocated footage published on April 15 shows Russian drone operators striking Ukrainian positions in western Ivanivske.[46] ... Positional fighting also continued southeast of Chasiv Yar near Novyi microraion, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.[49] Elements of the Russian 331st Guards VDV Regiment (98th VDV Division) and 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly operating near Chasiv Yar, and elements of the 1486 “Leningrad” Regiment (a unit composed of mobilized personnel) are continuing to operate near Klishchiivka.[50]
"I think the most likely outcome is that Russia will have made gains, but will not have managed to break through.
"It will not have forces that are big enough or good enough to punch all the way through to the river [Dnipro]... but the war will have turned in Russia's favour."
"At some point this summer," says General Sir Richard Barrons, "we expect to see a major Russian offensive with the intention of doing more than a breakthrough with small successes to perhaps try to break through the Ukrainian positions. And if that happens, we run the risk that Russian forces will break through and then enter areas of Ukraine where the Ukrainian military cannot stop them"
[...]
The Commander of US Forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, has warned that unless the US rushes significantly more weapons and ammunition to Ukraine then its forces will be outgunned on the battlefield by ten to one.
Mass matters. The Russian army's tactics, leadership and equipment may be inferior to Ukraine's, but it has such superiority in numbers, especially artillery, that if it does nothing else this year, its default option will be to keep pushing Ukraine's forces back in a westward direction, taking village after village.
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America’s Stark Choice in Ukraine and the Cost of Letting Russia Win
The US can quickly resume providing military aid to let Ukraine stabilize the front lines near the current locations.
Or it can let the Russians defeat the Ukrainian military and drive toward the NATO borders from the Black Sea to central Poland.
There is no third option.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Defiant and determined, House Speaker Mike Johnson pushed back Tuesday against mounting Republican anger over his proposed U.S. aid package for Ukraine, Israel and other allies, and rejected a call to step aside or risk a vote to oust him from office.
“I am not resigning,” Johnson said after a testy morning meeting of fellow House Republicans at the Capitol
Johnson referred to himself as a “wartime speaker” of the House and indicated in his strongest self-defense yet he would press forward with a U.S. national security aid package, a situation that would force him to rely on Democrats to help pass it, over objections from his weakened majority.
“We are simply here trying to do our jobs,” Johnson said, calling the motion to oust him “absurd ... not helpful.”
Tuesday brought a definitive shift in tone from both the House Republicans and the speaker himself at a pivotal moment as the embattled leader tries, against the wishes of his majority, to marshal the votes needed to send the stalled national security aid for Israel, Ukraine and other overseas allies to passage.
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