This post is meant to explain why the best plan for everyone involved would be for Donald Trump and Mike Pence to resign, allowing Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House to hold the office of the President for the rest of 2020.
I know this is already the response of many, but hear me out.
In this scenario, the Republican Party forces Donald Trump and Mike Pence to resign before the Senate holds the impeachment trial. Following the line of succession, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi becomes the President. She can then issue pardons for Trump, Pence, and for whoever else it may be necessary, but also use her new position to immediately bolster the defense and integrity of our government and election systems from Russian and other malevolent attacks.
Similar to when Gerald Ford pardoned Nixon, Pelosi’s actions would have the rationale of being in the interests of healing the country’s deep wounds, and moving the country forward. Unlike Ford, she is not going to be running for President afterwards, at least not for 2020. And also, unlike Ford, she is not of the same party as Trump and others who may need pardons. These would mitigate some of the charges that happened with Ford, and would invariably rise against her, whose pardoning of Nixon was seen as a sign of corruption, and tarnished his popularity at the time.
Ensuring that Trump is out of the picture for the Presidential race of 2020 would really give the Republican Party their best chance at actually winning, whether they want to admit it or not. While Trump running as an incumbent would be a clear advantage, it also comes with it a clear disadvantage — Trump himself. While it is clear that he holds a strongly fervent base on which he can rely — it bears repeating that, in 2016, he lost the popular vote, and with the backlash already seen against his administration throughout midterm elections — which saw the Democratic Party retake the House of Representatives, several statewide offices, and multiple high-profile wins, such as Doug Jones in Alabama and Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania — there is good reason to believe a similar backlash awaits him and his party this year. States where Trump won in 2016 — Michigan, Kentucky, Kansas, and Wisconsin — have all flipped their governors from Republican to Democrat since Trump took office. Even if Trump gives them a great chance of holding the Presidency, his coattails will be dangerously non-existent for the Republican Party. And that’s assuming he is able to win his own election. If the Republican Party made a deal to get Trump out of office now, they would have plenty of time to field a stronger candidate in their primaries (or, at worst, Mitt Romney).
Furthermore, as the impeachment process is showing, as well as his dangerous moves on Iran such as the Soleimani assassination, the Republican Party cannot reasonably hope for Trump to be an asset, or even just a non-factor. The only thing Donald Trump does remotely consistently, is dig himself into bigger holes. Hotel magnate? More like hole magnet. The idea that he won’t continue to become an even bigger embarrassment on the 2020 campaign trail is laughable, at best.
A logical question might be why the Republican Party, even if they were to consider this scenario, wouldn’t just want to keep Pence in office, keep Pelosi out of the Presidency, and let him run for election moving forward. Setting aside if he would even be that great of a candidate, the biggest reason is that, if Republicans finally buy into the notion that Trump has been egregiously corrupt and dangerous to the interests and people of the country, then it is hard not to also pin Pence as a powerful accomplice in Trump’s actions. Pence, like Trump, can arguably be shown to have abused his position in the Executive Branch. As the head of Trump’s transition team, Pence is likely implicated in much of the interactions between the Trump campaign, and outside forces such as Russia and Turkey. Furthermore, Pence has repeatedly come out as a key defender of Trump’s administration — all of this leaves little room for not also holding Pence accountable for Trump’s impeached regime.
Outside of Trump and Pence, there are numerous current Republican politicians, currently in office, who, if Trump is allowed to remain in the White House and continue his corrupt reign, should also arguably be held to account for their actions.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell — reportedly blocked the Obama administration from notifying Congress, and the American people, about intelligence findings on Russian hacking of the 2016 elections. Even now, he is still personally standing in the way of the US defending itself from these attacks.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy — while being taped, claimed that Trump is on Putin’s payroll.
“There’s two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump,” McCarthy said, according to the recording. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, another Republican from California, is a fierce defender of Russia and Putin.
“Swear to God,” McCarthy added, after some of the lawmakers laughed at the statement.
Rep. Devin Nunes — who has been key to protecting Trump in Congress, but may have also been implicated in the Ukraine aid quid pro quo himself.
When it comes time to finally fully investigate how far Putin and Russia’s influence reaches and has reached into our nation’s government, these are just some of the many Republicans, who need to be more forthcoming with their answers on what they knew, and when they knew it.
Because another point worth mentioning — all the officials associated with Trump or Trump’s campaign, that have since been charged or convicted for crimes.
Michael Flynn. Paul Manafort. Roger Stone. Michael Cohen. The list could go on and on.
The list, as time goes on, very well could include the likes of McConnell and McCarthy — who have probably only avoided the scrutiny of prosecutors themselves, only for their status as elected officials.
Seeing as how both also have re-election to worry about in 2020, the possibility of making Trump quietly go away is even more in their interests.
And yet, it is not as if McConnell is the only Republican Senator whose re-election campaigns in 2020, are fraught with peril due to their closeness to Trump — especially if it is more about helping him cover up for his misdeeds. Susan Collins of Maine, Martha McSally of Arizona, and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, for example. All would have their re-elections further complicated, if they have to vote for a Senate trial that might largely be seen as a sham, with how McConnell and Trump are crafting things. And even if McConnell’s own race is safe — which, itself, might be an issue — the odds that a Senate impeachment trial of Trump actually helps him maintain control of the Senate, seems far more dubious than losing it.
On the other hand, if the Republican Party continues to aid Trump in his offenses, when Democrats regain the White House (and with Trump the candidate in 2020, that will always be a strong possibility), there will a strong call to continue prosecuting him and his administration — but also many of these other Republicans, who have made themselves a big part of Trump’s actions. I am reminded of the Presidential race of 2008, when prosecuting the Bush administration became a big part of the discussion. Although Obama eventually stepped back from pursuing such actions, future Democratic Presidential candidates may be more open, especially when one starts to compare the severity of offenses between the Bush and Trump administrations.
As things stand now, McConnell and Republican leadership, and most observers, see their best play being to hold the impeachment trial — no matter how biased and immaterial, so they and Trump can claim his name cleared — and then hope they can use their institutional advantages to maintain their grip on power, including the White House, through the 2020 elections, and possibly beyond. This, however, brings with it the large risk that not only does Trump lose, but the backlash of wielding so much of their power in the efforts of propping up Trump and covering up his misdeeds cause them to lose many more elections, if not just the Senate, but also seats all up and down the ticket.
Alternatively, were they to force Trump out sooner — much as the Republican Party back then did to Nixon — they could stand a better chance of maintaining much of their grasp on power, perhaps even the White House with a more electable candidate.
I know for many here, the idea of issuing pardons to Trump and others as part of such a deal is quite offensive. But the immediate threat posed by Russia on our institutions is greater than any possible punishment that Trump would ever face — as if any President in our history has ever been punished in such a way or likely ever will. Similarly, the threat of Trump continuing to wield military power, in the ways that he has shown to Iran, for even one moment longer, warrants looking at options such as a deal like this, to immediately neutralize such a threat. And without having to hold an impeachment trial in the Senate, the country avoids a tumultuous and divisive battle, that, even if the outcome is Trump’s removal — which is increasingly seemingly remote by the day — would likely only cause even more turmoil in the country. On the other hand, if he resigns voluntarily, and passes off power in a way that demonstrates the institutions in this country are working as intended, it leaves a conciliatory feeling for both the Republican and Democratic Parties to operate under going forward. One could also argue that, by granting pardons, a President Pelosi would also be holding them to admissions of guilt, though that is still a contentious debate. Still, such a move, such as by pardoning Nixon, could potentially be more far-reaching than a current perceived outcome of a McConnell lead impeachment trial.
In the end, politics in America is hardly ever perfectly what we want it to be — but when we seek out an option that works reasonably well for as many involved as possible, we are able to achieve significant change.