Following Iowa and New Hampshire, some partisans of both Clinton and Obama are calling on Edwards supporters to bow to the inevitable and make a choice. There's a lot of activity here at Daily Kos from all sides, and a lot of intensity to put it mildly. Several diaries have implied that the continued presence of Edwards in the race hurts the Democrats, and will weaken efforts to consign the eventual Republican candidate and his party to the outer darkness they so richly deserve. In my opinion, it would be a big mistake to eliminate Edwards from the picture.
I had a few thoughts on hyper-partisanship the other day, but I'm going to try to make a case here purely on strategic terms why keeping Edwards in the race helps both Obama and Clinton, and helps the Democratic party as well. There are some dynamics going on where the short term interests of all three top candidates should be weighed against the longer view. As I said the other day, we've got to pace ourselves, people
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Let's start with a basic observation: we're a long way from done yet. As Edwards himself has noted, 99% of the voters have yet to be heard from. Letting Iowa and New Hampshire thin the herd this early may mean that states yet to be heard from are going to be turned off if we do. We're seeing big turn outs for primaries so far; that's a good thing and part of it comes from the idea that the race isn't over yet.
Let's consider the soft bigotry of high expectations. In 2 primaries so far Edwards has gotten the votes of a third to a fifth of the primary voters. If any Republicans had done that well two primaries running, the pundits would be calling them the potential front runner. In contrast, they're not even bothering to dismiss Edwards by name; he's conspicuous by his absence. (NPR's Michele Norris looked at prospects of candidates in South Carolina and didn't even mention Edwards even though he was born in the state and was Senator next door in North Carolina.) Edwards may not have come in first in the first two primaries, but he still attracted a significant share of voters.
Consider: Edwards did this despite a huge gap in spending and near zero press coverage. That suggests his message and presence must have a big impact on those who've managed to hear it. Obama and Clinton have plenty of money to get their message out. How many of Edwards supporters would have come out for them if he hadn't been there? The party of God, Fraud and Fear will do everything it can to suppress voting. If Edwards helps turn out voters, then his presence is a net gain for the Democrats the longer he stays in the race.
Let's look at another dynamic. The knowledge that Edwards is lurking behind them has to factor in to just how hard Clinton and Obama go after each other, and how they do it. Neither of them is going to risk attacking the other in a way that ends up promoting Edwards. His presence is a moderating influence which is helping keep the campaigns from going too negative - which ends up again being a net gain, because the Republicans will be quick to pounce on any divisions.
The Press. Need I say more? The elites who want to script the election are trying to kill off Edwards because they want to turn it into a death match between Obama and Clinton. It's not just that they hate him and his message, it's an easier story for them to manage. Plus, once it's down to just Clinton and Obama, they'll do everything they can to destroy Clinton. (And then Obama.) All you need to verify this is to look at the stories they've been running after Iowa (glee!) and New Hampshire (shock!). As long as Edwards stays in the race and keeps turning in respectable numbers, they are going to have a little more difficulty forcing the narrative. Obama and Clinton should resist any efforts to exclude Edwards from upcoming debates. (Not to mention, a debate between more than two people gives the participants more time to think about their responses while awaiting their turn for a question.)
The Overton Window - a big consideration. Edwards is making a very strong argument that the power structure in this country in this country is not serving the interests of the people and it is going to take real confrontation to change it. As an outsider, he can bring up topics and arguments that neither Clinton or Obama might go near by themselves. He can stake out bold positions. Even if Edwards is ultimately proven to have pushed too far, he has still given Obama and Clinton more room to maneuver and moved them in a progressive direction as well. If Edwards continues to draw support, if he begins to gain nationally, the Overton window could shift even farther. (See Rasmussen Reports tracking poll.) After decades of Republicans shoving it hard to the right, it's a good thing to see someone pushing it in the other direction.
Timing is important. Edwards has been making a strong case that economic inequality is a serious problem in America, and getting worse. There are more indications every day that the U.S. economy is headed into the tank big time. By the summer, Clinton and Obama could be trying to catch up with Edwards on this issue and they'll certainly have an example to follow if it looks like a hot button issue. This has been a traditional issue for the Democratic party that they have lost to the Republican myth that everyone in America can get rich as long as the government gets out of the way. The middle class is finally starting to get the message that the GOP is out to destroy them. If that's the wave to catch, Edwards is ready to hang ten. It would be nice if the Democratic Party is ready to surf along.
Geographic balance: A lot has been made of the black man - white woman dynamic. Edwards adds a north - south axis as well. It makes it that much harder to paint the Democrats as a party of northern elite liberals. (It also provided a sane counterpoint to Huckabee's folksy persona.) Whether or not that affects how the ticket shapes up, having Edwards seen and heard demonstrates the Democratic party isn't beholden to just one region of the country.
The Uncertainty Principle. So long as Edwards keeps either Obama or Clinton from locking down the nomination - and doesn't do so himself - the Republicans are going to be going nuts trying to figure out who to target for destruction. Assuming the question is still open by the convention, it could actually energize the voters even more. If nothing else it would send a message that money or connections are not enough by themselves to buy a nomination. The convention might actually draw real attention from the electorate if it's more than a coronation. Managed well by all concerned, it could translate into even more momentum for the dash to November.
Bottom Line: I don't see how Edwards hurts things by staying in the race, and quite a few ways his presence is a net gain for all parties on the Democratic side - at least up until the point where he passes them. ;-) Right now, the Republicans are in a crisis because their Big Money/Neocon owners have enforced so much ideological purity on the party, they've become inbred. Look at their mainstream candidates: a 70 year old 'rebel', a plastic imitation Reagan, and Mr. 911/24/7. Their party is splintering from challenges from the fringes they've been exploiting, and they can neither repudiate Bush nor embrace him.
Here's hoping Edwards continues to put up a good run - because it's making Clinton and Obama run better as well. It's a long time till the convention so let's all let the process work. The eventual winner - America - will be better for it.