"We are 6 points down.... The media has written us off.... My friends, we've got them just where we want them." - John McCain, gleefully, at a rally earlier today (Oct 13th). This weird quote apparently makes no sense...
Normally, one would imagine a politician in this predicament would not be gleeful.
I saw McCain's comment earlier today at work and thought it just another irrational/erratic statement by McCain. As I walked in the door this evening, my partner was emphatically repeating "6 percent!" I was confused.
What he was saying, that had not occurred to me, was that McCain considered the race tied.
Several recent analyses have concluded that the Bradley-Wilder effect was the result of poor polling. In the 1982 race for the governorship of California, MSM polls showed Tom Bradley with a significant lead just before the election and the presumptive winner. Bradley lost by a very small margin. To explain the discrepancy between the MSM polls and the election results, it was hypothesized that white voters were unwilling to tell pollsters that they were unwilling to vote for a black candidate. There was no evidence or this. It was a theory. Recently, Nate Silver, of fivethirtyeight, reported that Tom Bradley's internal polling correctly indicated a tight race that could go either way. Again see 538
For the die-hard believers in a "Bradley effect", the magic number has been 6%.
From CNN earlier today:
Some analysts say the Bradley effect can account for 6 percentage points against an African-American candidate.
Could this be the reason for McCain's glee?
If this is the case, he is in for a very big November surprise.
This is not an earth shattering point, but I originally thought what he said was completely insane. Maybe this is the window into a desperate mind.