Hi folks. I wish to extend a heartfelt apology to the community for helping to perpetuate misinformation provided by TEPCO, the Japanese government, and various regulatory agencies. I had believed that the lessons learned from previous nuclear incidents would be enough to inspire them to be candid and forthcoming regarding the known status of the reactors, their containment systems, and the releases to the environment. I was wrong. It is now clear that there was, and remains, a significant effort at managing information and limiting the ability of outside observers to accurately analyze conditions resulting from the March 11th earthquake and tsunami. The updates I provided in March and early April were based on grossly inaccurate reports and unreliable data.
It is still quite a frustrating situation, trying to get accurate and timely information from TEPCO. For example, as FishOutofWater has repeatedly complained, they are not releasing measurements of a variety of very short-lived isotopes which could quickly answer the question of whether there is any ongoing criticality at the site. There are suspiciously fluctuating levels of Iodine-131 but that alone is not conclusive evidence.
And while it does appear that they are making progress in getting into crucial areas for observation and evaluation, there is much that remains unknown regarding how much fuel is where and in what form. How much remains in the reactor vessels? How much in the drywells? Is any fuel currently molten? If so, where is it, inside or outside the vessels? Regardless of where the fuel may be or the solid/liquid status of any portion, it all must continue to be cooled just as the spent fuel needs to continue to be cooled. And until they know where all the fuel is located it is not possible for them to know whether it is all being sufficiently cooled.
Given the seasonal nature of my work and the need to "make hay while the sun shines" I do not have the time available to do the kind of research needed to stay current with this topic. I very much appreciate the work FOoW has done in keeping up with important developments. There have also been others such as HoundDog who have stayed with this story and made good contributions here. I also wish that nathguy had not been such an ass in how he chose to present information and editorialize. As much as I disliked his personal attacks and nastiness, there were some key issues on which he had it right - the shaky status of the unit 4 spent fuel pool and the ultimate truth regarding the full meltdowns. While I don't disagree with his banishment in the least, I do feel that some of his contributions on this topic were useful.
I will continue to follow this story as time allows and hope that various diarists at DKos continue to post updates. And while I'm sure many of these will be presented from an overly anti-nuclear perspective, I appreciate them to the degree that they provide accurate information.
And as has been the case from the beginning, the nuclear accident is just a portion of what is currently afflicting Japan. The ongoing cleanup and rebuilding efforts are enormous and easily overshadowed by Fukushima. This is all having a ripple effect throughout the world economy. This is especially true in the markets for certain high tech products from Japan. For example, much new car production is being hampered for lack of computer-based components from Japan. This has in turn caused the used car market to jump in value. The full impact of the earthquake and tsunami may not be known for many years. And while the nuclear aspect of it is certainly significant, we need to recognize how the interdependence of world trade has made us all more vulnerable to the effects of distant events. It also makes more clear just how short-sighted and foolish the GOP and conservatives are in their efforts to limit disaster aid to those in need.