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Results: AL, MS, HI

12:37 AM PT: Who is up for Hawaii results? I won't be awake for long, just checking in before going to bed, and lo and behold, it's competitive! With 35% reporting, Romney has 531 votes to Santorum's 466 (as you can see, turnout is, um, challenged in Hawaii).

Hawaii has one of the largest Mormon populations in the country, so this should be an easy and dominant Romney state. But so far, that's not the case.

12:42 AM PT: Want to play the projection game? It never really works out, but what the heck -- if current trends hold, Romney should pick up a net 35 votes on the big island, and a net 10 votes in Maui. On the other hand, Santorum should pick up about 100 votes in Honolulu. Nothing has reported in Kauai.

Excluding the smallest island, that would mean a net +55 votes for Santorum, who currently trails by 75. Then tiny Kauai would make the difference.

Things never end up linear like that, but it would be hilarious if either Santorum wins, or if Romney barely eekes out a victory in a state with 1) a moderate GOP, and 2) a significant Mormon population.

12:57 AM PT: A new batch of results from Honolulu County now gives Romney the lead on that island, which immediately proves the folly of linear projections. The margin between Romney and Santorum is now 101 votes with 42.2 percent reporting.

1:06 AM PT: Another batch in, the margin is now Romney +84 over Santorum with 46.7 percent reporting.

Romney is winning the big island +7 votes over Paul, winning Maui +4 votes over Paul, and winning Honolulu County (Oahu) +6 votes over Santorum. For some reason, I find that hilarious.

1:09 AM PT: 51.1 percent in, Romney's lead expands to 122 votes.

1:10 AM PT: That last batch of votes concluded Maui's participation. Romney won that county/island by nine votes over Paul, and 75 votes over Santorum.

1:12 AM PT: 60 percent in, Romney's lead grows to 179 votes. Some Honolulu County precincts came in strong for him.

1:13 AM PT: Romney currently has 34.2 percent of the vote, proving that no matter where he competes, as long as there's more than token opposition (cough*Virginia*cough), two-thirds of voters will prefer someone else.

1:17 AM PT: Don't look now, but Paul has just taken the lead on the Big Island with 81.8 percent reporting in Hawaii County. However, Romney now has a 191-vote lead over Santorum with 62.6 percent reporting.

1:29 AM PT: We're now stuck at 68.9 percent reporting, with Romney opening up a big lead of THREE HUNDRED FOURTEEN VOTES (said in your best Dr. Evil voice). However, given the Hawaii GOP's anemic turnout, that ends up being about a 6-point margin, and should be enough for Romney to survive with a little over a third of the vote.

If Romney was looking for salve to ease his Mississippi and Alabama wounds, this wasn't it. I can't wait to do a delegate update tomorrow later today, but a cursory glance at the delegate awards, and it's clear that Romney's path to 1,144 delegates got harder tonight, not easier.

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Comment Preferences

  •  So, Hawaii then... (10+ / 0-)

    Romney's not quite running away with it; Maui and Hawaii are being split with Ron Paul (with a minor Romney edge), while Honolulu actually has a Santorum lead.

    I don't know the Republican demographics in Hawaii in the slightest, but looking at how much has reported, Santorum might even have a shot if his Honolulu lead holds. My instinct is to doubt that, though.

    It's kinda weird to be up at 3:30 AM and following the sparsely attended Republican caucus in Hawaii while vaguely rooting for Rick Santorum, yet here I am.

  •  Hawaii Delegates (3+ / 0-)

    If Gingrich stays above 15.
    We can get a 5-12 not Romney split in Hawaii. That would be awesome, I think after tonight Romney is either a delegate ahead or a delegate behind what he needs for 1144.

  •  Wow, I figured Romney had Hawaii in the bag (7+ / 0-)

    His weak Hawaii performance is even more embarassing than 3rd place in Alabama and Mississippi. The only good thing about tonight was for him was that 70 people in some restaurant in the American Samoa liked him.

    "Victory means exit strategy, and it's important for the president to explain to us what the exit strategy is." - George W Bush

    by jfern on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 12:48:59 AM PDT

  •  Hey, we ain't so tiny! (13+ / 0-)

    What's this "tiny Kauai" stuff, huh? Ohhhhh...you meant the number of REPUBLICANS on Kauai. Well, that IS tiny.

    Kauai was 75% for Obama in 2008. We're hoping to match that this time. :-)

    BTW, everyone, come out and see us! The rain has finally let up. We got THIRTY-THREE INCHES of rain in one freakin' week in our area. But I think the worst has passed.

    Check out my new blog Romney the Liar right here.

    by Yosef 52 on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 12:50:49 AM PDT

  •  Wow. Romney really does suck, no? (10+ / 0-)

    A nominee who never makes it past 1/3 of the vote in contested races against a cadre of fools who he has to outspend by as much as 11:1 to break even or eke out a win.

    I'll give Romney props: my ego couldn't handle that degree of utter rejection.

    I need your help for the NN booth for People-Powered Public Television (ppptv.org). Please help me out with your vote! CLICK HERE

    by mdmslle on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 12:53:39 AM PDT

    •  Me too! Makes you wonder why he's running??? (5+ / 0-)

      He doesn't like people, people don't like him. It's ok though, Obama will spank him with a wet noodle in the GE.

      Let my name stand among those who are willing to bear ridicule and reproach for the truth's sake, and so earn some right to rejoice when the victory is won.-Louisa May Alcott

      by YoungArizonaLiberal on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 12:55:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  he sucks and he hasn't even faced real (3+ / 0-)

        Opposition! Imagine that!

        The beating he's going to find himself in the middle of once he wraps up the nomination in June is going to be a real eye opener for him. To date, the worst attack he's faced was zero in the debates and a full court press by newt in Florida that lasted about a week. Nobody calling him out on his flip flops - just saying he cant be trusted as a True Conservative.

        Boy is he going to for a world of ass hurt come July. Good thing he seems immune to humiliation. He's gonna need that quality come November.

        I need your help for the NN booth for People-Powered Public Television (ppptv.org). Please help me out with your vote! CLICK HERE

        by mdmslle on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:04:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree! I think that there is a bit of narcissism (5+ / 0-)

          that goes into running for President. But overall, I think that the person believes that they will help the majority of people. I don't think that is true for Romney. He's not even hiding his disdain for middle and lower class Americans. He is the perfect candidate this cycle thanks to OWS.

          Let my name stand among those who are willing to bear ridicule and reproach for the truth's sake, and so earn some right to rejoice when the victory is won.-Louisa May Alcott

          by YoungArizonaLiberal on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:12:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Hawaii has more LDS members than usual, (4+ / 0-)

    in addition to having a more moderate GOP and being a caucus state (benefitting the well-organized). And yet, Santorum is outperforming Romney in the largest and most urban county.

    Weak, weak, weak.

    "A man doesn't save a century, or a civilization, but a militant party wedded to a principle can." - Adlai E. Stevenson

    by Zutroy on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 12:55:18 AM PDT

  •  Mittbot images (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wee Mama, Eric Stratton, antirove

    I like this one:

    This one isn't bad. It's just not evil enough.

    This next one is too evil.

  •  Looking at the county maps (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wee Mama

    I could see Santorum continuing to win Honolulu, Paul gaining the few votes he needs to win Maui and Hawaii counties, and one of them winning the Kauia county, and probably no results in Kalawao County, which could have the funny result of Romney barely winning a state while losing every single county in it.

    "Victory means exit strategy, and it's important for the president to explain to us what the exit strategy is." - George W Bush

    by jfern on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 12:56:28 AM PDT

    •  Umm...'Kalawao County' has a caucus? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Seneca Doane

      I'm guessing NOT. This tiny peninsula on the north shore of Molokai is the former Hansen's Disease (leprosy) colony. Former patients who were once exiled there against there will are now free to come and go, of course, and entitled to reside in their homes there for the rest of their lives. But most are very elderly, and live there only part time. There are staff, such as National Park Service workers, who live there too. So there might be a polling place for elections. But a GOP caucus? LO-freakin'-L! And the election results are probably tabulated with Maui County. It's only considered a separate county...well, it's  a LONG story.

      Still LOL'ing at the idea of the amazing residents of Kalaupapa--a single one of them!--being crazy enough, after what they've lived--to vote for a GOP hatemonger!

      Read about the story of the Kalaupapa Settlement sometime. It just might change your life.

      Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

      by earicicle on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:27:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  is it just me (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wee Mama

    or did that google link map totally botch the hawaii county names? IIRC hawaii just uses islands as counties, so there's oahu county, non honolulu, and maui is one island, not a cluster of them.

    •  Nah (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wu ming, Ender, earicicle, Seneca Doane

      Oahu is the island. Honolulu County is the political jurisdiction (city and the rest of the island).

      •  thanks for the info n/t (0+ / 0-)
      •  Fun fact, the city and County of Honolulu (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        earicicle, Seneca Doane, dconrad

        contains islands 1500 miles to the west. Most cities don't contain areas 1500 miles from their downtown, but Honolulu does.

        "Victory means exit strategy, and it's important for the president to explain to us what the exit strategy is." - George W Bush

        by jfern on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:08:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  911 response time probably (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          riverlover, dconrad

          sucks there, huh?

          You can do whatever you want to us, but we're not going to sit here and listen to you badmouth the United States of America.

          by Eric Stratton on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:12:57 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  How about (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            riverlover

            a trip to the DMV?

            Or jury duty?

            •  I was actually stationed at Pearl for 3 years. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              IM

              I know all about the joys of dealing with Hawaiian bureaucracy. I had to pay a parking ticket there once, major pain in the ass. Getting an inspection sticker for your car was like a cross between a treasure hunt and a mob shakedown, and traffic sucked.

              I should have never left.

              You can do whatever you want to us, but we're not going to sit here and listen to you badmouth the United States of America.

              by Eric Stratton on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:25:31 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  ??? The inspection was ridiculously easy. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                dconrad

                Turn on your blinkers and brake lights at any gas station, show 'em your insurance papers, pay the ludicrously cheap fee & get your sticker. It hardly constituted a 'safety inspection,' and it was less of a hassle than topping up the air in your tires.

                And why didn't you just pay your parking ticket in the mail?

                Respect is a core element of Hawaiian culture. When it is not given, it is sometimes hard to return it, even though we try.

                Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

                by earicicle on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:31:53 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Some of the the locals I met... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  indie17

                  were not necessarily the friendliest of folks. By respect do you mean the time a gang of thugs pot one of my buddies in the hospital? Or how about the time this scrawny 5'4" tall guy sucker punched (with about 10 of his friends standing behind him) me and then spitting on me to let me know I was unwelcome at that beach? Very respectful.

                  Maybe for you getting an inspection sticker is a breeze, but for me... every place I went they tried to tell me I had to pay for $1000 in repairs or I couldn't get one. Now, over time I learned what beaches and what parts of downtown to avoid. I also met a local guy who was an ex-marine and ran a repair shop next to Sand Island. I sent all my friends to him when they got to the island and needed stickers, otherwise Firestone would try to screw them too.

                  Lots of GI's hated that place, and I can't blame them. The only place I've been stationed in the US with more race resentment is probably Mississippi. Although the underlying reason for the racial tension may be very different, it's still no fun being on the receiving end of it. I'll never forget going into a grocery store in uniform and some local guy telling his 9/10 year old son that I was one of the "bad guys".

                  But I have always tried to find the good in people and places, and there were plenty of great people on the island that I was fortunate to know. As I said upthread, in spite of whatever problems there were, I miss it. In the end the worst part about it was I just got tired of being surrounded by military all the time, so I got out and went back home.

                  You can do whatever you want to us, but we're not going to sit here and listen to you badmouth the United States of America.

                  by Eric Stratton on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:52:04 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  'The locals?' (0+ / 0-)

                    You mean your fellow American citizens? I am one of those 'locals' of whom you speak. I am one of those 'locals' who faced utter disrespect of my person, my people and my land by countless military personnel who treated their posting in Hawaii like a combination of an exotic vacation and the occupation of a foreign colony.

                    We were not amused.

                    Even if this behavior did not represent the conduct or attitudes of the majority of the 100,000 or so members of the military who lived on our islands--choosing for the most part not to live WITH us--its calousness & relentlessness reflected very badly on all US military personnel. And on the continuing US military presence, which of course had begun with the violent & illegal overthrow of the sovereign Hawaiian monarchy.

                    NO: You were not welcomed to smoke, drink beer, cuss, litter and play incredibly loud music on our quiet beaches, especially while ogling me and my friends as we swam & sunbathed at 12, 13 and 14 years old.

                    And the racism? Where do you think that originated? From the 'locals'? Not the GIs coming from the mainland who grew up in their cozy nests never having met people of Japanese, Chinese, Vietnamese, Samoan, Tahitian, Hawaiian, Portuguese, Fijian, Laotian, etc ancestry, let alone one big mixed up great hapa stew of all these races and more? Are you fucking kidding me?

                    I am as haole as haole can be. And I grew up thinking that 'racism' was a concept from the history books--solved in the civil rights era--until I came to the mainland for college. And not to Mississippi, but to Connecticut. The entire mainland seethes with racism, even today. Hawaii isn't perfect, in part because 'non-locals' who don't care to learn & absorb Hawaiian values, continue to colonize the increasingly expensive land. But racist? The world, not to mention the US mainland, could learn from Hawaii.

                    To get that inspection sticker, had you gone to any one of those garages with a hint of pidgin in your voice and a dollop of humility in your heart, no one would have EVER thought to take you for a ride. My skin is paler than a tourist from Lapland, and my driver's license sadly no longer bears an instate address. But I am embraced and treated like a kama'aina ('child of the land') every time I am blessed to set foot back in the islands. I am judged not by the color of my skin, but by the content of my character.

                    Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

                    by earicicle on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 02:11:14 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Ah... the internet. (0+ / 0-)

                      Where people go to lecture complete strangers they don't know anything about. I used to get worked up by this sort of thing, but I've learned to just let it go.

                      I don't know why you decided to start all of this. Perhaps you're really angry at the world or maybe you're just a nasty person... but I'm not interested in continuing this. Have fun yelling at the internet.

                      Peace.

                      You can do whatever you want to us, but we're not going to sit here and listen to you badmouth the United States of America.

                      by Eric Stratton on Thu Mar 15, 2012 at 02:13:49 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  LOL. (0+ / 0-)

                        Yes...I can see you're really familiar with my 'angry' personality, clearly made manifest in my 4+ years of active participation in the community here. LMAO.

                        I do, however, get angry when gun-toting rednecks from the mainland mischaracterize and disparage the least racist, most peaceful place on earth as racist & violent.

                        Just want to correct the facts, and report the truth to my fellow Kossacks about who actually brought the ugly attitudes to our serene isles. They know me, and trust that I'm telling them what really happened.

                        I could give two shits about you.

                        Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

                        by earicicle on Thu Mar 15, 2012 at 07:15:58 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Oh please. You're a long way from perfect. (0+ / 0-)

                          You said I deserved to get treated badly by Hawaiians (the majority population on your island) because I was from the mainland (a member of a minority population). Then you said I should have has "respect" by acting more like the majority.

                          Imagine your own indignant reaction if I said the same about minorities in my hometown? What if I said blacks deserved to be treated badly and even suffer violence unless they acted more like white people? Suppose I justified it because some blacks had done bad things to me when I was a teenager? That's not a hypothetical because it happened. There were black and Hispanic kids who assaulted and bullied me as a teenager, but I don't share your attitude that they deserve to be judged negatively as a group. Nor do I think that any minority owes me an apology for shit they didn't do.

                          Yet you're saying that I deserved to get assaulted by Hawaiians because... why? What exactly did I do wrong? Oh but some marines acted inappropriately once, so it's all good. You're comments thus far show great prejudice, ignorance and a hypocrisy.

                          Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.
                          I suppose it gives you warm fuzzy feelings to make that your signature. It's a nice sentiment, and we all like to think good of ourselves. But go back and reread this little flame fest. You started this, and over nothing. All I did was say I had some trouble getting a sticker for my car 15 years ago and you went off on me. I even gave you a chance to ramp down the rhetoric, but instead you go nuclear.

                          Ask yourself at least this... what does that restore? How does that heal?

                          You can do whatever you want to us, but we're not going to sit here and listen to you badmouth the United States of America.

                          by Eric Stratton on Thu Mar 15, 2012 at 05:25:45 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  From the 2010 US Census Bureau Stats (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            mahakali overdrive
                                                                                       Hawaii            USA
                                White,                                          24.7%    72.4%
                                Black,                                            1.6%    12.6%
                                American Indian & Alaska Native,      0.3%    0.9%
                                Asian                                          38.6%     4.8%
                                Native Hawaiian & Other Pacific Islander,10.0%    0.2%
                                Persons reporting two or more races, 23.6%    2.9%
                                Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin,     8.9%    16.3%
                                White persons not Hispanic,             22.7%       63.7%
                            Linky (sorry I can't get the columns to line up nicely in the comment)
                            The Census also reports that in addition to these 6 broad categories, Hawaii's population contains 57 other race groups. There is NO majority population, least of all the Hawaiians, who now comprise less than 10% of Hawaii's residents. Conservative demographers estimate a precontact population of 1 million Hawaiians, at least 90% of whom died in the decades following Captain Cook's arrival.

                            All ethic groups are minorities in Hawaii. That is the beauty of the place.

                            Interesting that you report 'minority' violence against you in other places. Maybe the pattern has nothing to do with 'other people' at all.

                            Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

                            by earicicle on Thu Mar 15, 2012 at 08:45:35 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Yep! I was asking for it. (0+ / 0-)

                            What nerve I had to stand on a public beach minding my own business. I totally deserved it. I happen to think unprovoked, thuggish, violent behavior is a bad thing. We apparently differ on this issue.

                            Look, I generally liked most of the people I met on Oahu. You, however, seem to be a really awful person. Or maybe you're just a loon. Either way, I really wish you'd stop littering my comments with your bs. Go away.

                            You can do whatever you want to us, but we're not going to sit here and listen to you badmouth the United States of America.

                            by Eric Stratton on Thu Mar 15, 2012 at 11:39:03 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

      •  To be precise, the entire island of O'ahu is (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wu ming, Yosef 52, Seneca Doane

        called 'The City and County of Honolulu,' as a political jurisdiction. Kauai & Niihau constitute Kauai County; Maui, Molokai, Lanai & Kahoolawe (uninhabited) are Maui County, and the Big Island is Hawaii County. The tiny peninsula on Molokai's north shore, commonly called Kalaupapa (location of the former leper colony) is Kalawao County. There are few year round residents any more; I would have to research whether their votes are added to Maui County totals. The residents' needs are addressed directly by the state, given the state's history of, you know, fucking them over.

        Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

        by earicicle on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:38:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Honolulu just flipped to Romney (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wee Mama

    though not by much (37.9-36.1,with 26.1% reporting in-county).

  •  You should round Santorum up to 31%, Kos... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wee Mama, Yosef 52

    He has 30.5%

    Romney has 34.5%, which you rounded up to 35%.

  •  Romney: 34.4% - Santorum: 31.2% (0+ / 0-)

    46.7% reporting.

  •  20% of Hawaii Christians are Mormoms (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ender, Trix, Eric Stratton

    While 71% of Hawaiians aren't Christians.  Think about that, and how Mr.  Moneybags is only barely beating Santorum.

    "Victory means exit strategy, and it's important for the president to explain to us what the exit strategy is." - George W Bush

    by jfern on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:06:53 AM PDT

  •  Updates are coming in faster now (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheMomCat

    Romney is maintaining his just-under-4% lead.

  •  Moderate Republicans (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lefty Coaster

    may have just stayed home. Is there an estimate of turn out?


    "There is but one evil party with two names, and it will be elected despite all I can do or say." W.E.B. Dubois, 1956
    TheStarsHollowGazette.com

    by TheMomCat on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:14:23 AM PDT

  •  Paul trailing by less than 1% in Maui & (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheMomCat

    Hawaii counties, but his poor showing in Honolulu looks to be taking him out of contention.  (More or less the same applies in reverse to Santorum, although he's trailing by a bit more even in Honolulu county.)

  •  More people in this thread than the leads (5+ / 0-)

    In Maui, Honolulu county and Oahu combined.

    It IS hilarious, Markos.

    I need your help for the NN booth for People-Powered Public Television (ppptv.org). Please help me out with your vote! CLICK HERE

    by mdmslle on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:15:11 AM PDT

  •  Paul just took the lead in Hawaii County. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheMomCat

    33.5-27.6 with 81.8% reporting in-county.

  •  Virginia… (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mdmslle, apimomfan2

    …proves that 40% of Republicans won't vote for Romney no matter what (and even more will stay home). Please let him be the nominee. I've got a down ballot race (TX-27) that is dependent on Mitt being around in November that won't be helped by the Catholic Santorum.

    Teh stoopidTM, it hurts. Buy smart, union-printed, USA-made, signs, stickers, swag for everyone: DemSign.com. Get your We are the 99% Yard Sign.

    by DemSign on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:19:39 AM PDT

  •  results by CD (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheMomCat

    from here

    President - CD - District 1 - GOP Caucus
    7 of 14 Precincts Reporting - 50%
        Name    Party    Votes    Vote %   
        Romney, Mitt    GOP    556    38%   
        Santorum, Rick    GOP    524    36%   
        Paul, Ron    GOP    190    13%   
        Gingrich, Newt    GOP    185    13%   

    President - CD - District 2 - GOP Caucus
    21 of 31 Precincts Reporting - 68%
        Name    Party    Votes    Vote %   
        Romney, Mitt    GOP    792    31%   
        Paul, Ron    GOP    769    30%   
        Santorum, Rick    GOP    633    25%   
        Gingrich, Newt    GOP    386    15%   

    I haven't found info on if there's a threshold for delegates. If the threshold is 15%, then the winner of CD1 wins 2, the top 3 in CD2 get 1 delegate, and the statewide total (11 total) is

    Mitt 4
    Santorum 3
    Paul 3
    Newt 2

    if there's no threshold..

    in other words, Mitt may be +2 here, but he's doing a lot worse than you'd think.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:24:32 AM PDT

  •  Delegate Prediction (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheMomCat, Seneca Doane

    My reading of the Hawaii allocation rules boils down to if a candidate gets more than 33% of the vote in a CD (but less than 66%) he gets 2 delegates and 2nd place gets 1, otherwise the top 3 each get 1.  Statewide more than 36% would be needed to get 5 of the 11 statewide delegates but more than 27% gets 4 (awarding the highest vote getters first).  The 1st CD is parts of Oahu and the rest of the state is in the 2nd CD.  I dont have the Oahu vote broken down by CD, but it seems to me Romney is likely to win that CD 2-1 to Santorum whereas the 2nd CD will be 1-1-1.  Statewide its likely to be 4-4-3 (the 3 being for Paul).  So the total would be Romney 7, Santorum 6 and Paul 4.  

  •  There is some humor in this (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JML9999, wu ming, Seneca Doane


    "There is but one evil party with two names, and it will be elected despite all I can do or say." W.E.B. Dubois, 1956
    TheStarsHollowGazette.com

    by TheMomCat on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:32:22 AM PDT

  •  With more in from Honolulu, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheMomCat, Seneca Doane

    it's looking like Romney is running away with it after all, 46-26-18 with 80% reporting statewide.

  •  and just like magic (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheMomCat, antirove

    Romney wins it with 36/45 in

    the results from the last 5 precincts were

    Romney 1452
    Santorum 363
    Paul 192
    Newt 102

    Yeah, Romney can't top 40% anywhere and then picks up 69% in 5 precincts.

    Mhmm right.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:34:07 AM PDT

  •  As per Nate Silver: It's Over Romney wins (4+ / 0-)

    We can all go to bed now


    "There is but one evil party with two names, and it will be elected despite all I can do or say." W.E.B. Dubois, 1956
    TheStarsHollowGazette.com

    by TheMomCat on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:34:36 AM PDT

  •  And... it is Over (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheMomCat, IM

    romney wins Hawaii will the last push in the last few minutes, up now to 46%. However, it is expected, and after the start of the news cycle (at least the newspaper)

    The worst thing with his campaign is that they lose no matter what the result.

    "Just when you think you are in control..." - Ok Go

    by acluka on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:34:41 AM PDT

  •  Kauai finally reports (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheMomCat

    1/3 in

    Paul 76
    Romney 46
    Santorum 33
    Newt 18

    Paul could win half the counties

    but the Mormon-heavy precincts were in CD2, knocking Paul away from Congressional delegates

    can't wait for them to do a Michigan and find ways to increase Romney's total in Hawaii.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:43:38 AM PDT

  •  "I always have fish and pineapple after my (5+ / 0-)

    buttered hominy grits and biscuits the morning."

  •  There was a sudden huge swing to Romney (2+ / 0-)

    in Honolulu. It was probably the Mormon area turning out big for him. If it hadn't been for them, Romney would have probably only won 35-30 or so.

    "Victory means exit strategy, and it's important for the president to explain to us what the exit strategy is." - George W Bush

    by jfern on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:46:05 AM PDT

  •  It's about over: Mittens wins, but loses (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BarackStarObama

    Justin's Political Corner:

    Mittens is in a lot of trouble.
    Justin's Political Corner is now on Facebook. Like the page.
  •  Because it seems no Thresholds (0+ / 0-)

    The current math suggest
    Romney 7, Santorum 5, Paul 3, Gingrich 2, but could still clearly shift around a bit

  •  instant earworm (0+ / 0-)
    You can leave it all behind and sail to Lahaina
    Just like the missionaries did so many years ago
    They even brought a neon sign "Jesus is coming"
    Brought the white mans burden down
    Brought the white mans reign

    and I wait for them to interrupt my drinking from this broken cup

    by le sequoit on Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 04:08:20 AM PDT

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