Forget the horse race polls for now. The campaign has barely begun. Here's the one that really matters at this point. What the numbers tell us is that if Dems get a solid, truthful message across, they win. Some excerpts from the poll, selected and rearranged to make a point:
--among those who are aware [of the Medicare voucher plan], the idea remains unpopular; by a 49% to 34% margin more oppose than favor the idea.
-- People age 65 and older who have heard about this proposal oppose it by a 55% to 24% margin, with fully 46% saying they are strongly opposed. There also is more opposition than support among people age 50 to 64, while those under age 50 are more divided [Well,if 49-34 opposed is "divided"].
[And the money quote:]At this point, most Americans do not associate Ryan with the proposal to change Medicare. Just 23% of those who have heard about the idea of shifting Medicare to a system of credits to buy private insurance identify it as Ryan's. Nearly as many (17%) say Barack Obama proposed this, while 44% do not know who proposed it.
IOW, the door is wide open for the Dems to finally shift that 65+ voting block that's been eluding them until now. All they have to do is connect the dots between RyanRomney and Medicare vouchers and Social Security cuts.
Other interesting findings: --By 51 to 33, Americans think it's more important to keep Medicare and Social Security as it is than to reduce the deficit. Down from 61% who thought the deficit was the top priority in January.
--"46% say Ryan is an only fair (23%) or poor (22%) choice, while just 28% call him an excellent (14%) or good (14%) choice".
There's lots more grist for the campaign mill at the website, but the bottom line is, if the Dems keep tying RyanRomney/GOP to the attack on SS/Medicare, plus their escalating war on women -- in other words telling the truth -- they could even win a blowout election. And the best news is that so far, they're right on target, as are the progressive orgs doing independent media. I don't even think the Reps are going to get a significant convention bounce -- all scrutiny is a negative, not a positive, for them.
[First appeared as a comment at Booman Tribune]