This is how the Republicans stole the House of Representatives in 2012.
What a great title, huh? At Netroots Nation in Detroit, there was a
panel by that name, and it did not disappoint. Moderator Tom Bonier began by laying out how Republicans approach gerrymandering, and elections in general:
If you can't win fair, change the rules.
And that's pretty accurate. Republicans do this on any number of fronts, from
voter suppression tactics such as reducing the number of days people can vote, making it harder or impossible to register and vote on the same day, purging the voter rolls in ways that throw legitimate voters off the rolls, and demanding voters show government-issued photo ID (although gun permits are
allowed in Texas, naturally, but not college ID's). In addition to these, Republicans have excelled in mastering the redistricting process by gerrymandering districts at the local, state, and federal level.
The two sides don't do it to anywhere near the same degree, however. In the runup to the 2010 elections, Republicans developed a $30 million plan called REDMAP to aid in their attempt to flip state legislatures and thus gerrymander districts going forward. As you can see above, it worked.
And it's gerrymandering that this panel focused on. I know you all want to know what the secret plan is. I know that's what I was wondering from the time I first saw the list of panels. Here it is: Step 1: Win control of state legislatures. Step 2: Draw smarter maps.
I know, I know. You're wondering how could Democrats release this kind of high level strategic thinking to the general public. Jokes aside, it's not just a matter of what to do, but how to go about doing it. And make no mistake, Democrats are planning to use the next round of redistricting, which will take place after the 2020 elections, to undo the absurdly gerrymandered lines drawn after 2010, which were in place for the 2012 races.
One of the key elements of the plan is the fact that, according to Sasha Issenberg at Slate, "When it comes to targeting and persuading voters, the Democrats have a bigger advantage over the GOP than either party has ever had in the modern campaign era." Additionally, the Democrats' get out the vote (GOTV) operation is superior to that of Republicans. This is definitely doable.
Please follow me beyond the fold for more.
Michael Sargeant from the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (
DLCC), which targets state legislative races, gave a broad national overview of gerrymandering and the 2012 elections to the House of Representatives. For much more detail, you can see Sam Wang's
analysis, or the
analysis by Nicholas Stephanopoulos, from which the above graphic comes. Democrats won about a million and a half more votes than the GOP overall in races for the House, yet John Boehner is Speaker. This is only the second time since 1945 something like this has happened.
Sargeant explained that state legislatures draw 336 congressional districts in 36 states. There are another 92 congressional districts that, although they are drawn by truly non-partisan commissions, are in states where Republican majority legislatures can threaten the commissions' maps.
The Democrats' plan involves targeting states where one or both legislative chambers have vulnerable Republican majorities. Flip enough state houses by 2020 (just moving a state from full Republican control to a split helps even if it doesn't create a Democratic majority) and we can help flip the US House. Undoing the crazy republican gerrymandering in Florida, Texas, North Carolina, and Ohio alone might well be enough to ensure a Democratic House majority.
The panel's other two speakers were state legislators: State Senator Jim Ananich of Michigan and Stacey Abrams, House Minority Leader for the Georgia General Assembly. Abrams is leading her chamber's push to turn blue, and is a key player statewide who has been nationally recognized as a rising Democratic star.
Abrams went into great detail about developments in Georgia, explaining that Republicans essentially resegregated the State legislature. Georgia grew by 1.8 million voters in recent years, about 75 percent of which were non-whites, yet non-whites lost representation. Abrams and her team intend to right that wrong. In 2012, they targeted seven seats that were gerrymandered for the GOP in 2010 and flipped four of them, and lost each of the other three races by less than 1,400 seats. She is confident that those three will flip soon, and predicted that the Georgia state house will turn blue by 2020.
How is Rep. Abrams going to make this happen? By broadening coalitions. By recruiting candidates of all races, people who can run and win in districts that don't necessarily look like them. She won't just focus on base Democrats in urban areas. Candidate recruitment must start the day after an election. Rep. Abrams explained that she asks issue groups to help recruit candidates from their ranks, and emphasized the necessity of better training of candidates and, in particular, staff. Republicans do that very well, she noted.
Rep. Abrams, by her calculations, has 39 districts that are winnable by 2020 thanks to predicted demographic changes and increased voter registration efforts, and Democrats need only 31 wins to flip the House. On that last point, she has sought to figure out why voters aren't voting and help answer their concerns, especially about some people's fear of voting, including folks' fear that they might be arrested while trying to vote. Voter suppression isn't just about turning away voters who don't have the right ID, it's about keeping people too afraid to vote, period. Rep. Abrams understands the importance of educating those voters as part of the GOTV effort.
Gerrymandering is nothing other than the disenfranchisement of voters. In order to win back these state houses, and the congressional races whose districts they draw, we have to win more than a majority of votes because of the Republican gerrymander of 2010. That in itself is undemocratic.
Although it's not really a secret, the Democrats do have a plan to get them to where they need to be in 2020. We would all do well to remember that our fight is not just for the White House or the Senate, and that the fight for the U.S. House of Representatives can be won and lost at state capitols like Harrisburg, Tallahassee, and Columbus.
If you are able to donate, a few bucks in a state house race typically goes a lot farther than in a race for federal office or the presidency. As voters, and as a party, we've got to be smart, focus our resources, and get out the vote. We sure know the other side is going to.
Finally, I encourage you to watch the panel to learn more: