I'm still waiting for Fox Spews to broadcast at any moment about the Great Plague that took Cleveland as a result of Nurse Amber Vinson's visit to that region. This weekend marks the 21st day of her journey. She flew to Cleveland 21 days ago on the 10th. She flew back to Dallas on the 13th.
More after the um, orange spew...
I heard an emergency management official speak yesterday. He is waiting for November 3rd before he can relax about the risk of ebola spreading because of those flights to and from Cleveland.
I think he is mistaken. It's not nearly that simple.
The average incubation times is often giving in the range of 3 to 13 days. Thank you Greg Dworkin for this terrific link:
Haas ran that data through models created by other scientists to convert the raw counts of days into a probability curve. He showed that each data-model pair paints a slightly different picture of how long the virus can lie dormant in the body before making its carrier sick. The models broadly agree that the average case emerges in much less time than 21 days; the average time is somewhere between three and 13 days.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/...
Now there are certainly going to be differences in the incubation period for environment, concentration of the virus in the process of contamination, personal immunity systems, but the word from Haas and others seems to be pretty clear about this. And if they are right about the average incubation period, it's looking pretty good at this point for the people in Cleveland that came into contact with Vinson and on those flights. If any one were to get infected, I think we would have heard of at least 1-2 cases by now.
Thomas Eric Duncan's family is alive although their struggles are far from over thanks to the stigma the corporate media continues to feed:
"Imagine, I could not visit him. I was told, `prepare for the worst.' It was horrible. You either think of killing yourself or you ask God to make you strong," Troh said in an interview with The Associated Press.
Hospital officials said they did all they could and consulted with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Emory University Hospital in Atlanta throughout the process of Duncan’s care
Troh said she is trying to move forward and just wants to get back to a normal life, but that it's become stressful trying to find a place for she and her family to live because every property owner she's talked to in Dallas refuses to rent her a long-term residence due to the negative stigma of Ebola.
"I am hurt, I am displaced, I have this Ebola stigma on me and no one will take me in," Troh said.
http://www.nbcdfw.com/...
Sometimes it pays to give attention to what we're NOT hearing:
Gregory (Scotland Yard detective): "Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?"
Holmes: "To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time."
Gregory: "The dog did nothing in the night-time."
Holmes: "That was the curious incident."
The corporate media will not dwell on these facts of course. The 21 day period is regarded almost like some kind of binary switch. Before the end of that we're all in deep peril. After that, everything is easy street. That isn't how it works. There is even some indication that sometimes incubation takes longer than 21 days but the difficulty of collecting quality data in chaotic situations may account for a good part of that.
The standoff between LePage and Kaci Wilcox is too tempting of a story for the corporate media (CM) to not play up with their sloppy, lazy "he said/she said" habit. Yet here we are, on the eve of the 21st day of quarantine for people in a case when we know someone was infected and CM? Its crickets. Nurse Wilcox, healthy as ever, getting a nice bike ride in, is the story. And note that IF she had been infected on her last contact with an ebola patient, she may be past the average time for incubation.
I wish I could shake Ms. Wilcox' hand and express the gratitude I feel toward her for showing this country what courage and knowledge look like.