I’ll start with the disclaimer: The following is a theory, based on evidence and research. It ‘s still open to debate, I suppose, but the evidence to support it is compelling and there appears to be no other theory that holds up.
At the risk of inviting invective from gun enthusiasts, there is a point of discussion I’m tired of seeing cited as “proof” guns are harmless, that more guns = less violence. The common argument I see so often goes something like this: “well, if guns are so bad smart guy, why is it we have declining violence in this country AND more guns then ever!” Maybe, just maybe, the decline in violence in America comes in spite of the over-armed nature of the populace, not because of it. This is just one facet of the gun debate but the evidence is compelling. The decline in violence/violent crime in America (and everywhere else in the world for that matter) directly correlates to the reduction/elimination of lead in the environment…specifically, leaded gasoline.
According to Kevin Drum’s synthesis of all available data on violent crime in America, the decline should be attributed to the elimination of lead in gasoline. No other theory pans out. Not only is there a direct correlation (even down to the neighborhood level), but lead toxicity and its affects have been extensively studied and are known to include:
lower IQ, hyperactivity, behavioral problems, and learning disabilities.
Also from the article:
Karl Smith, a professor of public economics and government at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, has a good rule of thumb for categorizing epidemics: If it spreads along lines of communication, he says, the cause is information. Think Bieber Fever. If it travels along major transportation routes, the cause is microbial. Think influenza. If it spreads out like a fan, the cause is an insect. Think malaria. But if it's everywhere, all at once—as both the rise of crime in the '60s and '70s and the fall of crime in the '90s seemed to be—the cause is a molecule.
I know debating gun control, or lack thereof, is as constructive as debating religion, any given point of fact will be readily discredited by the “true believers”, but this one point should be put to bed in my opinion. The decline in violent crime in America, and the rest of the world, has NOTHING to do with the prevalence of guns…its about getting the lead out.