Retiring Republican Sen. Marco Rubio
Potential candidates are constantly getting "mentioned" for higher office, but who's doing all that work? Why, the Great Mentioner, of course. In this new ongoing series, Daily Kos channels the Great Mentioner and catalogs all the notable candidates who might run in 2016's most important races.
Republican Sen. Marco Rubio surprised no one last week when he announced that he would forgo re-election to run for president. Democrats have been preparing to fight for this seat regardless of what Rubio did, and Rep. Patrick Murphy had launched a challenge even before Rubio bailed for his White House bid. Murphy is a tough candidate and a great fundraiser who managed to pull off a decisive win in his light red House seat during the 2014 GOP wave, and he's quickly emerged as a favorite of national and state Democrats. But Murphy has a reputation as a moderate, and some Sunshine State Democrats are unhappy with him as their potential standard-bearer.
Fellow Rep. Alan Grayson sounds likely to run, and he could complicate Team Blue's chances here. Grayson is wealthy and has a massive donor list, and his outspoken liberalism would be an asset in a primary against Murphy. But Grayson is not exactly the most disciplined candidate. In 2010, he ran a spot utilizing an out-of-context clip to equate his Republican opponent with the Taliban, a move that badly backfired and contributed to his outsized loss that year. (He returned to Congress in a safer seat in 2012.)
Grayson also just settled a divorce lawsuit in which he'd accused his wife of 25 years of bigamy, which would have been grounds for an annulment, and the settlement does reportedly involve the marriage getting annuled. (Published reports had said that an annulment would not have required an equitable division of Grayson's $30 million fortune, whereas "a divorce would distribute equally any wealth or debt acquired during the marriage.") That gives him more time to focus on a Senate race, but the GOP would still have plenty of ammunition to use against him.
As unsettled as the situation is among Democrats, the GOP side of the field is even more wide open. Now that state Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater and ex-state House Speaker Will Weathford have chosen not to run, there is no obvious primary frontrunner, and a ton of dudes—yep, all dudes—are in the mix. (Rep. Tom Rooney also just took his name out of contention.)
We'll start with Rep. Ron DeSantis, who sounds the most likely to jump in. He's already emerged as a favorite of anti-establishment groups, including the well-funded Club For Growth, as well as FreedomWorks and the Tea Party Express. DeSantis's ties to movement conservatives should be a big asset in a primary, though he'd have a more difficult time winning over more moderate voters in swingy Florida in a general election.
But plenty—plenty—of other Republicans are eyeing this seat. Head below the fold for the complete rundown.
Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera has expressed interest in a bid, and behind the scenes, his supporters say he's all-but-in. Lopez-Cantera, who has said he won't make a decision before May 1, is very close to Rubio, and the retiring senator would like find to a way to help him (even if it's sub rosa). Lopez-Cantera's boss, Gov. Rick Scott, is also likely to back him. Lopez-Cantera could appeal to the state's Cuban-American population, a formidable bloc in both GOP primaries and general elections, and plenty of national Republicans would love to have another Hispanic in their Senate caucus. But while Lopez-Cantera is a statewide elected official, polls suggest he starts out with little name recognition. Democrats would also work hard to link him to Scott, who has never been remotely popular despite winning twice.
Rep. Vern Buchanan is another member of the House who's talked about seeking a promotion. The wealthy Sarasota-area Republican used to serve in the NRCC's leadership team, so he'd have some of the establishment connections he'd need. But Buchanan's ethics could prove to be a liability among voters just meeting him for the first time. Buchanan has spent much of his political career dogged by accusations that he used his car dealerships to launder campaign money. The charges have largely petered out, but Buchanan's opponents wouldn't waste much time utilizing them if he runs. Buchanan sounds more likely to stay in the House, though he's been careful not to rule anything out.
David Jolly, yet another congressman, has also talked about replacing Rubio. Jolly won a tough special election against well-known Democrat Alex Sink last year, establishing himself as a formidable campaigner. But the GOP would not look forward to defending his swingy St. Petersburg-area House seat without him, and he's almost certainly being encouraged to stay put. Jolly, one of only a handful of congressional Republicans to support same-sex marriage, is also relatively moderate, which could hold him back in a primary. Jolly recently promised to make a choice within six to eight weeks, but he doesn't sound ready to go for it, saying his "heart and soul is in representing Pinellas in the House."
The parade of congresscritters looking to move up doesn't end there, though—far from it. Rep. Jeff Miller hasn't shown too much public interest. However, the Pensacola-area congressman didn't rule anything out when asked. Miller is a very low-key House member who would be risking his seniority on a tough bid, though if no one else from the conservative Panhandle runs, he could pull off a surprise.
Reps. Curt Clawson and Dennis Ross have said nothing publicly, but they're also reportedly considering. Clawson, another rich guy, has some money to burn, and he has some appeal with more libertarian-flavored voters. However, Clawson might not be the most compelling general election candidate, and he hasn't always acquitted himself well in the House. Dennis Ross (no, not that Dennis Ross) is a pretty generic House Republican, though you can't rule him out in a crowded race, especially if other central Florida candidates stay put.
Former Sen. George LeMieux's name recently began to circulate, and he hasn't ruled out a comeback. LeMieux was Charlie Crist's top political advisor back when Crist was a Republican, and the then-governor appointed him to the Senate in 2009. As promised, LeMieux did not campaign for a full term, but he tried seeking the GOP nomination to face Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson in 2012. LeMieux's bid never went anywhere and he dropped out before the primary, so it's hard to see him doing much better this time, though he did show a particular knack for getting under his rivals' skin with gusto. LeMieux's old ties to Crist, who was the Democrats' gubernatorial nominee last year, would also be a problem for GOP voters.
Former state Senate President Don Gaetz is another Republican publicly mulling a bid. Gaetz, who hails from the Panhandle, knows he starts out with little name-recognition and isn't the first choice for most insiders. But Gaetz is wealthy and could conceivably break through if the stars align. Finally, former Attorney General Bill McCollum says he's being encouraged to run. McCollum narrowly lost the 2010 gubernatorial primary to Scott, and unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2000 and 2004, so he's always had a bug for major statewide office. But he's 70 years old, so he may just be ready to call it a career.
No matter what unfolds, we're in for a very long and intense battle, both in the primaries and especially in the general. Both parties know that this seat could decide who controls the majority in the Senate come 2017, and they are going to fight hard to come out on top here. We'll be watching all the developments here at Daily Kos Elections.
For all of our posts in the Daily Kos Great Mentioner series, click here.
1:51 PM PT (David Nir): This post was updated to clarify the circumstances of Alan Grayson's annulment.