Republicans have held California's 25th Congressional District in northern Los Angeles County seat for ages, but presidential turnout might give Democrats a shot at pulling off an upset next year. And freshman Republican Steve Knight hasn't exactly been doing a good job entrenching himself in this seat, which Mitt Romney only carried by a narrow
50-48 margin.
On Tuesday, Knight made headlines after he was caught on video threatening an anti-immigration protestor, "If you touch me again, I'll drop your ass." It's somewhat surprising that Knight has earned the ire of anti-immigrant zealouts, since he first won his seat in Congress last year by presenting himself as the true conservative option—more on that in a bit—but here we are. (Philip Bump explains exactly what these activists were pissed about.)
And it's not just his interactions with the public that showcase Knight's weaknesses. He ended late March with only $29,000 in his campaign account, a pitiful sum anywhere, but especially for a seat located in the very expensive Los Angeles media market. And you can't say this was merely one weak quarter: During the entire 2014 cycle, Knight raised just $400,000.
Democrats know that winning over this ancestrally red seat isn't going to be easy, but Team Blue is looking to put it in play. Roll Call reports that Santa Clarita Water Board Member Maria Gutzeit has been talking to the DCCC about a possible run, and she says she is considering it. The local water board isn't necessarily the most obvious launching pad for a congressional bid, though the job has recently become much more high-profile now that California is experiencing a severe drought. (Gutzeit also tried running for Santa Clarita's city council in both 2008 and 2014 but lost both times.) The Democratic bench isn't great here and it's unclear who else might step up, but Knight's flaws could give Gutzeit an opening.
However, it's far from clear we'll see a Knight-Gutzeit match even if the Democrat does jump in. Knight's apostasies on immigration—and this high-profile confrontation, which circulated nationally—could earn him a challenge from another Republican, though no one has talked about stepping up yet. But if Knight does earn a credible GOP challenger, that's not necessarily good news for Democrats. Under the state's top-two primary rules, all candidates compete on the same primary ballot, and the two contenders with the most votes advance to November.
While Democrats can expect good turnout in November of next year, they can't for the June primary, seeing as turnout was horrible here in 2012. It was even worse in 2014: Even though four Republicans were on the ballot and 2012 Democratic nominee Lee Rogers only faced a little-known intra-party foe, Knight and fellow Republican Tony Strickland still managed to take both general election spots. (In the end, Knight won 53-47, motivating just enough conservative voters to overcome the better-funded, establishment-backed Strickland.)
So if two Republicans are on the ballot in 2016, there's a real possibility of the same thing happening again, which would give the GOP an automatic hold, even if Knight ultimately lost. However, it's too early to say what will happen here. Knight's problems give Democrats an opening in an area that's become quite competitive in recent presidential cycles. But Democrats will need to work hard to avoid the pitfalls they've experienced in the past to finally turn this seat blue.