The polls closed at 5:00 PM EST, 10:00 PM local time. It will be a few hours before we have any results at all, and the first real bellwether seats will come at around 9:00 PM tonight.
There are two sets of exit polls, one set is literally unbelievable, and it comes from the BBC:
Conservatives 306, 20 short of a majority
Labour 239
SNP 58, of Scotland's 59 Seats
Liberal Democrat 10
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 2
Ukip 2
Others 19
With 10 LibDems, and 10 Unionists in Northern Ireland, Cameron would have the numbers he needed to potentially form a government. But in Scotland, in this scenario, the SNP will have taken all but one seat. If that's the case, and the Tories still end up running things, Britain is in trouble. The union itself is in trouble.
At the same time, there might not be the numbers to form a coalition. If the Tories are kept out by the anti-tory votes, if the Lib Dems don't go for a Tory government I can see this resulting in a second general election very, very quickly. I don't know how Labour could form a functional government, as they'd need the votes of almost every other party with the exception of the Tories and UKIP to get anything at all done.
That being said, these numbers are incredibly unlikely. I do not think the SNP did that well. I do not think that they'll take 58 seats. There's a second projection, from YouGov, which I find far more accurate:
CON - 284
LAB - 263
SNP - 48
LDEM - 31
UKIP - 2
GRN - 1
This was done by YouGov, which premiered the system they used during the last election. They build up lists of people that they poll, and when the polls close, they call them. They whip up a demographic sample the moment the calls come back in, and they publish those figures. This was extremely accurate. And this poll matches up well with the previous polls put out by most other pollsters. I don't think there was some extreme jump towards the conservatives in the last 24 hours.
Bellwethers
To tell the UK Wide picture, our first result in a Labor/Tory marginal will be the town of Nuneaton.
I'm actually really upset with the way the Labour party has handled the election in this seat. Standing here for Labour is a 22 year old candidate who defeated a Labour Party insider in for the candidacy entirely by having a massive presence in the local community through volunteer and charity work. Vicky Fowler is a dynamic, progressive young woman and one of the most interesting people running in the entire Labour party. For some mind-boggling reason, they've kept this gem of a candidate sequestered away from cameras and the press. Fowler is trying to take down Tory Incumbent Marcus Jones.
If this seat falls to Labour, as one of the real battleground seats, then it will tell us just how well the Tories' Jockalypse campaign has gone. In this constituency, they've put up a massive election billboard showing Alex Salmond in a stereotypical burglar's black sweater stealing rolls of cash out of someone's pocket. This has matched the conservative campaign across middle England.
I really wish Fowler well in this seat. She's a young, talented woman who can do a hell of a lot for the British left if she can just get herself elected.
Nuneaton is going to be a squeaker, it and other battleground seats will start to give us a picture of what might happen.
This result is expected at around 9:00 EST.
So too, the first real bellwethers in Scotland will be Kircaldy and Cowdenbeath, along with Rutherglen and Hamilton West. They'll be in around 10:00
Kircaldy and Cowdenbeath is Gordon Brown's old seat. Local polling suggests it will be SNP. Rutherglen and Hamilton West is a Labour seat which is expected to stay Labour. The results in these seats will tell us just how high the SNP Tsunami will be.
Follow me across the jump, where I'll post data from the first two results shortly.
Houghton and Sunderland South
Labour Hold
Bridget Phillipson
Labour 21,218 55.13%
Richard Elvin
UKIP 8,280 21.51%
Stewart Hay
Tory 7,105 18.46%
Alan Robinson
Green 1,095 2.84%
Jim Murray
Lib Dem 791 2.06%
Ukip did extremely well here. Surprisingly well. The fact that the Greens just beat the Lib Dems is also interesting.
Still waiting on the official data from the second result, but I'll have that up as soon as I've got the official numbers. I'll start a running tally of who's doing how well shortly.
3:33 PM PT: Washington and Sunderland West
Labour Hold
Labour
Sharon Hodgson 20,478
UKIP
Aileen Casey 7,321
Conservative
Bob Dhillon 7,033
Green
Anthony Murphy 1,091
LibDem
Dominic Haney 993
TUSC
Gary Stephen Duncan 341
Once again, the Greens are doing better than the LibDems and UKIP is doing worryingly well.
3:43 PM PT: Sunderland Central
Labour Hold
Labour
Julie Elliott 20,959
Conservative
Jeff Townsend 9,780
UKIP
Bryan George Foster 7,997
Green
Rachel Sara Featherstone 1,706
Lib Dem
Adrian Page 1,105
Independent
Joseph Young 215
So what we're seeing so far is some huge gains in vote share from UKIP, the Greens doing better than the Liberal Democrats. I'll be here as the results come in, and I'll have some analysis as well.
4:00 PM PT:
It looks like Danny Alexander is done, if the political editor of the Daily Mail is right here.
His seat in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey may be going to the SNP.
4:04 PM PT: BBC is reporting that everyone in South Lanarkshire agrees that all three S Lanarkshire area seats are going to the SNP. The BBC says they spoke to Labour, Tory, and SNP sources, and all are in agreement. The SNP has won.
Labour is calling the situation "Catastrophic."
4:07 PM PT: This is how things look in Glasgow at the moment. All smiles for the SNP, but that Labour activist looks like he's having an extremely bad night.
4:09 PM PT: Guardian gives the first information on Nuneaton.
Holly Watt sends this from Nuneaton:
One Conservative in the hall saying they are now “quietly confident”
of holding Nuneaton. Should be getting turnout figures soon.
4:11 PM PT: The Political Editor of the Sunday Independent says this looks like a bad night for the Lib Dems:
4:18 PM PT: Glasgow Labour candidate Tom Harris is on the BBC. He's heavily implied that he expects to lose.
"Nobody was listening to us during this campaign... This wasn't about policy this was a reaction to the referendum. No matter how many arguments we made or won, people just weren't listening to us."
The BBC says he's "Almost Certainly" going to lose.
4:24 PM PT: BBC, STV, and now the Guardian are all saying that the SNP might take every seat in Glasgow.
Glasgow North East is the toughest seat for them to win. I will be very happily surprised if they do, but I will say that the SNP candidate there Anne McLaughlin has built an extremely powerful machine there.
4:33 PM PT: Report on early results from STV in Rutherglen and Hamilton west, where Labour is expected to hold out, suggest a massive SNP victory.
If the SNP ends up with a massive win in Rutherglen, then they may sweep Scotland. This is worrying, because it means that the BBC exit poll may be correct. Similarly, I'm hearing more bad news for Labour in Nuneaton. Nothing solid, just more rumors that it's a conservative win.
4:36 PM PT: The Yes Campaign grape vine is telling me that the count in Edinburgh is looking good for the SNP, specifically in Edinburgh East.
4:39 PM PT: It looks like a 20 year old college student named Mhari Black may become the youngest Member of Parliament since the 18th century.
She's running against the leader of the Labour Party in Scotland, Jim Murphy. Early rumors suggest an SNP win.
4:45 PM PT: Hearing a ton of folks at the count saying that Nigel Farage has lost his bid to take a seat in South Thanet.
5:02 PM PT: Getting the very first rumors that aren't good news for the SNP out of Edinburgh west, which suggests that Tactical Voting may have helped the Liberal Democrats hold the seat. Others are saying the result is still extremely close. We'll see.
If the one seat remaining in Scotland is a Liberal Democrat seat instead of a Labour one, it will be a shock result.
The first of many, if the BBC Exit Poll is accurate.
5:11 PM PT: Some parts of Scotland are so remote that ballots have to be flown in to be counted.
5:18 PM PT: So far, no seats have changed hands.
The results from Swindon North show a conservative hold. 4% swing to the Conservatives.
Labour has held Tooting with a 0.2% increase in their vote.
Still waiting on that result from Nuneaton, which will be our first Labour/Tory battleground of the night.
5:23 PM PT: Ouch. The result in Tooting was uncomfortably close for Labour. Not looking good.
5:23 PM PT: More and More Journos in Scotland are saying that Jim Murphy, leader of Scottish Labour, has lost his seat. If so, he'll also lose his leadership, according to party rules.
5:31 PM PT: Scratch the Lib Dem's hopes in Edinburgh. BBC from the count says that the SNP ballots are so numerous, they almost need to weigh them. Only place where Labour has any hope is Edinburgh South.
5:48 PM PT: This is incredible. Tavish Scott has just said that the vote in Orkney and Shetland is a close race between the SNP and the Lib Dems.
If that's the case, then the SNP might sweep all of Scotland.
There's no scenario by which I ever imagined that it would ever be a close vote in Orkney and Shetland.
That's like the Green Party having a close race with Republicans in Wyoming.
Although I'm going to apologize to the Lib Dems for comparing them to Wyoming republicans. That's not fair to them, but describes the sort of political history well as an example.
This is also bad for the Lib Dems. The Scottish Lib Dems tend to be the more left wing members of the party.
More news. Another statement I would not have expected. This from BBC's James Cook.
That's incredible. If that's true than the Labour Party just lost some of their safest seats. Glasgow NE was supposed to be an impossible catch for the SNP.
5:51 PM PT: First Bellwether
Nuneaton is a conservative hold.
That's bad news for Labour.
6:00 PM PT:
6:03 PM PT: Labour candidates are blaming everyone else but themselves for their defeat.
It's the SNP's fault for scaring England. It's the Conservatives fault for scaring England.
But no one in Labour is willing to admit the basic point that the Labour party can't beat the tories by agreeing with them.
6:10 PM PT: Nicola Sturgeon just arrived at the Emirates Arena in Glasgow, escorted by MSP Humza Yousaf. She's being cheered now as she enters the count.
She made a very important point.
If the exit poll is correct, then the Labour party would still have lost, even if they took every seat in Scotland.
It is not the SNP which is Costing Labour a government, it is Labour's inability to beat the Tories in England.
6:14 PM PT: SNP Gain! Kilmarnock!
In a stunning victory, the SNP just wiped the floor with Labour. This wasn't even close.
SNP 30,000
Lab 16,000
Lib Dems, Less than a thousand.
6:17 PM PT: SNP Hold, Western Isles.
Results are starting to come in. SNP increased its support in one of its heartlands tonight.
6:20 PM PT: Numbers from Kilmarnock and Loudon
SNP
Alan Brown 30,000 55.7
Labour Co-op
Cathy Jamieson 16,362 30.4
Conservative
Brian Whittle 6,752 12.5
Liberal Democrat
Rod Ackland 789 1.5
This result is absolutely astounding. So too, it looks like the Liberal Democrats lost their deposit.
6:22 PM PT: Edinburgh South and Paisley are close seats right now. Count on in paisley.
6:25 PM PT: SNP GAIN! PAISLEY!
ASTOUNDING.
A 20 year old college student just took out one of Labour's top leadership, Douglas Alexander. Alexander was Chairman of Labour's election campaign.
She's become the youngest member of parliament since the 19th century.
6:26 PM PT: Snp Gain Dumbartonshire West.
6:29 PM PT: SNP Gain, Dundee West
27,000 SNP
10,000 Labour.
Huge victory.
6:30 PM PT: SNP Gain, Falkirk
6:31 PM PT: SNP Gain, Glenrothes
6:33 PM PT: These are all record breaking results. Swings of 22-28% are being recorded.
The national swing was only suspected to be in the low 20s.
6:35 PM PT: SNP Gain, Ochil and south Perthsire
48 to 28.
6:36 PM PT: Mhairi Black, the SNP candidate who took down Alexander is the youngest MP since 1667.
6:38 PM PT: SNP Gain South Lanarkshire
6:39 PM PT: SNP Gain
Motherwell and Wishaw
6:40 PM PT: SNP Gain Angus
6:41 PM PT: SNP Hold Dundee East
6:41 PM PT:
The SNP have officially taken 12 seats, more than at any other point in their history.
6:45 PM PT: After that storm of updates, the SNP have taken every single Scottish seat that has been announced tonight.
The SNP are at 12, no other party has any seats. Labour have lost 9 MPs, including Douglas Alexander, who was part of their senior leadership.
6:47 PM PT: East Dumbartonshire, SNP Gain
They stomped the Lib Dems 22,000 to 19,000.
6:50 PM PT: Rutherglen and Hamilton West, SNP Gain
6:53 PM PT: Gordon Brown's old seat, Kirkaldy and Cowdenbeath, is in SNP hands.
SNP Gain Kircaldy and Cowdenbeath
The SNP has set and broken several swing records tonight.
This isn't a tsunami. This is an asteroid strike.
6:54 PM PT: SNP Gain Midlothian
7:01 PM PT: SNP Gain Paisley and Renfrewshire North
This one was a bit closer, but still a knockout for the SNP. The counts are coming in extremely quickly now.
7:04 PM PT: SNP Gain Inverclyde
7:09 PM PT: SNP Gain Airdrie and Shotts
28,000 SNP, 15,000 Labour.
This is one of the most famous Labour seats in the UK. It's belonged to a number of extremely important Labour figures, including John Smith.
7:12 PM PT:
Jim Murphy, Labour Leader in Scotland, is done.
SNP GAIN, East Renfrewshire
20,000 to 19,000. This was a squeaker.
7:23 PM PT: SNP Gain Glasgow East
7:33 PM PT: Three gains for the SNP since my last update.
These results are coming so quickly that I can't really keep up.
This is an astounding victory we've seen tonight. No party but the SNP has won any seats in Scotland so far. It seems like interest is dropping off a bit, so I'm not going to keep reporting every single seat.
If somebody other than the SNP takes or keeps a seat in Scotland, I'll update that, I'll also start putting together some analysis.
But essentially, the Labour Party is done in Scotland.
This result will be repeated at the Scottish Parliament elections next year.
Local MPs have a lot of power and influence over local elections. They have name recognition, they have clout, they have access to tools that others don't have. If you have a parliamentary office, then you have a paid staff who can take time off to volunteer during an election. That infrastructure means that you have staff for your campaigns who are professionals.
So after this victory, the SNP will be even better equipped to win even more seats in Holyrood in the 2016 elections.
The Labour party is going to get hit hard next year. And then hit hard again, the year after that, in the Scottish local elections.
The SNP is set to take seat after seat, not just tonight, but for the next two years, and that's going to be a direct result of the local infrastructure they're inheriting across scotland.
If there is another Tory government, then it will lead to even greater popularity for the SNP.
It may even lead to calls for another independence referendum, if the Tories are in government and ignore the desires of the Scottish people for more autonomy.
7:34 PM PT: The SNP has 26 seats.
They've taken 25 of those from the Labour party.
7:40 PM PT: A lovely moment. Ian Davidson, has lost Glasgow South West.
He's the one who invoked the war crimes which occurred after the 1745 rebellion, by saying that all which the no campaign had to do for the referendum was ride north and bayonet the wounded.
Who's wounded now, Ian?
7:45 PM PT: The SNP just took one of the safest seats in the UK in Coatbridge, Chryston, and Bellshill.
7:54 PM PT: DailyKos seems to have called Orkney and Shetland for the Lib Dems.
It's not been declared yet, and I still have it as too close to call. But there's every chance that they know something I don't.
7:55 PM PT:
The SNP now has 33 seats.
No other party has been declared to have seats in Scotland at this point. This is three times as many seats as they've ever had in their history, and is a majority of seats in Scotland.
7:56 PM PT: The SNP has taken Glasgow Northeast, a seat that they simply were not supposed to win.
8:00 PM PT: Turns out they did know something I didn't.
Liberal Democrat Hold, Orkney and Shetland
The SNP came within 1,000 votes of taking the seat. This is one of the closest results in Orkney and Shetland in a long time, but it remains firmly in Lib Dem hands.
This is the first seat in Scotland declared for a party other than the SNP.
8:29 PM PT:
Labour Hold
Edinburgh South.
Ian Murray may be the last Labour MP standing in Scotland. He's the first Labour MP to keep his seat.
Edinburgh South did vote no.
8:39 PM PT: I've spoken with a few friends of mine in the Labour Party in England and they're absolutely gutted. There are some good folks down there who didn't get in tonight.
9:00 PM PT:
Tory Hold
David Mundell has kept his seat in Dumfrieshire, by the barest of margins.
9:36 PM PT: The rest of the counts will take some time, there is a recount underway. The SNP has taken 53 of Scotland's 59 seats, an astounding result.
The Liberal Democrats, Tories, and Labour are all tied at one seat in Scotland.
There are three seats left in Scotland to decide, and they will not be decided until the wee hours.
I will say that if there is an anti-Tory majority, the Tories will end up locked out of downing street. If there is a Tory government...
I don't see how this wouldn't lead to agitation for another independence referendum. Especially if Cameron continues his earlier statements on tying further devolution to English Votes for English Laws.
Time will tell.