Republican Rep. Marlin Stutzman
Republican Rep. Marlin Stutzman has been flirting with a bid ever since Sen. Dan Coats announced his retirement in late March, and he
kicked off his campaign on Saturday. Stutzman will face Coats' former chief of staff Eric Holcomb in the primary, and we could see some real fireworks.
While the establishment-flavored Holcomb is a former state party chair and an ally of Coats and former Gov. Mitch Daniels, Stutzman hails from the tea party wing of the party. Stutzman, at the time a little-known state senator, refused to drop out of the 2010 primary after national Republicans brought Coats out of retirement. Stutzman earned the backing of influential tea partier Jim DeMint, and he lost by a relatively narrow 39-29 margin. If ex-Rep. John Hostettler hadn't been competing for a similar pool of voters, it's a good bet that the underfunded Stutzman would have pulled off an upset.
Stutzman soon arrived in the House after his predecessor resigned due to a sex scandal, and he never stopped being trouble for his party's leaders. Stutzman unsuccessfully challenged two better-connected colleagues in last year's majority whip contest, and he voted against John Boehner in January's speakership election. While groups like the Club For Growth might like Stutzman's antics, the NRSC is not going to be enamored by the possibility of having him as their nominee.
But this primary may get bigger soon. Rep. Todd Young has also been considering the race, and he may be able to appeal to the very conservative voters Stutzman needs without alienating national Republicans. Fellow Rep. Todd Rokita has also expressed interest and while he hasn't sounded quite as eager as Young, he's promised a decision within the next few weeks. There are also a few other Republicans who could also go for it.
Democrats would love for Stutzman to emerge as the GOP nominee. Stutzman's bad relationship with national Republicans could hamper him in the general election, and the congressman hasn't always shown much discipline. During the 2013 government shutdown, Stutzman infamously declared that he and his fellow House Republicans were "not going to be disrespected. We have to get something out of this. And I don’t know what that even is." While it's too early to declare that Stutzman is the second coming of Richard Mourdock, the disastrous 2012 Senate nominee who lost to Democrat Joe Donnelly, he might give Team Blue more of an opening than Holcomb or Coats.
Still, Indiana is a conservative state. It's going to take some luck for Democrats to win here, and the party is still looking for a viable candidate. The DSCC is holding out hope that popular former Sen. Evan Bayh will come out of retirement, but Bayh sounds unlikely to go for it (though Bayh is an unpredictable guy, so you never know what he'll do). Former Rep. Baron Hill, state Rep. Christina Hale, or Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott might run if Bayh doesn't. We'll be keeping a close eye on both sides' developing fields in what promises to be an exciting Senate race.