The 2014 elections produced many interesting and unusual results. A prime example of this involves the states of New Hampshire and Maine. New Hampshire is generally considered to be the most Republican state in New England, while Maine is usually considered to be bluer. However, in 2014, the Senate and gubernatorial elections in New Hampshire were both won by Democrats, while the Senate and gubernatorial elections in Maine were both won by Republicans. Why did Democrats hold up relatively well in New Hampshire but do much worse in Maine?
The answer to this question is best illustrated by a comparison of two very demographically similar regions in New Hampshire and Maine that usually vote in similar ways, but voted in strikingly different ways in 2014.
Follow me beneath the fold for more.
Coös County, New Hampshire is the northernmost and least populous county in New Hampshire. Its largest town is Berlin, which has about 10,000 people. Coös’s main economic activities are forestry, tourism, and paper mills; Berlin is a declining mill town. Berlin has a depressed economy and is losing population quickly. Berlin has a large Franco-American population, and its mill workers are unionized, which results in the town generally voting strongly for Democrats. Obama received 68 percent of the vote in Berlin in both 2008 and 2012.
The northern half of Oxford County, Maine is directly east of Coös County. The largest town here is Rumford, which, when combined with its neighbor Mexico, has about 9,000 people. Rumford and Mexico are also declining mill towns with decreasing populations. They also have large Franco-American populations, and unionized mill workers. Obama received about 65 percent of the vote here in 2008 and 2012.
Thus, it should be clear that these two areas are very demographically and economically similar. Not just that, but they are adjacent to each other, and the mill towns are even on the same river (the Androscoggin). And in presidential elections, these areas vote very similarly. But that’s most definitely not true in every election, and the 2014 gubernatorial elections in New Hampshire and Maine were an excellent example of that.
The map on the left shows the results of the 2012 Presidential election. The middle map shows the results of the 2014 gubernatorial elections in New Hampshire and Maine. The map on the right shows the change between those two elections, with towns in blue shifting more Democratic from 2012 to 2014 and towns in red shifting more Republican from 2012 to 2014.
The first thing that should jump out is that, while the results of the two counties are similar in the 2012 presidential election, they diverge substantially in the 2014 gubernatorial elections. In New Hampshire, Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan performed very well in Coös County, receiving over 60 percent of the vote there. Coös County was over 8 points to the left of New Hampshire as a whole. This is unprecedented, as Coös County was only 4 points to the left of the state in the 2008 presidential election, 6 points to the left of the state in the 2012 presidential election, and 3 points to the left of the state in the 2012 gubernatorial election. In the past, Coös County has only voted over 60 percent for Democrats when they are winning in massive landslides, such as John Lynch’s 2006 and 2008 wins. The fact that Coös County would vote 60 percent for a Democrat when they are only winning the state by 5 percent is quite significant. Is it the result of demographic change? That’s one possibility, but it’s not the main reason, since demographic change in Coös County should favor Republicans as heavily-Democratic Berlin loses population. But Coös County hasn’t moved toward the Republicans, in fact quite the opposite, so there must be another explanation.
Before we get to that, let’s move over to Maine. As the maps above indicate, despite the fact that Oxford is a Democratic-leaning county in presidential elections, it voted strongly for Republican Governor Paul LePage in the 2014 gubernatorial election. Not only that, but it also trended heavily Republican at the same time. In the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, Oxford County voted about 1 point more Republican than Maine as a whole. However, in the 2014 gubernatorial election, Oxford County voted a whopping 16 points more Republican than Maine as a whole. Even in Maine’s 2014 Senate election, Oxford County voted only three points more Republican than the state as a whole. So what on earth happened in the gubernatorial election?
The explanations for both Coös’s and Oxford’s interesting 2014 election results both involve the campaigns that were run in each state. In Maine, Paul LePage’s campaign heavily targeted the working-class voters that so dominate Oxford County. He criticized his opponent, Democrat Mike Michaud, on issues such as welfare fraud and, in particular, immigration (a particularly potent issue in working-class areas). While some of LePage’s relentless criticisms of Michaud on these issues may have been misleading or dishonest, there is no doubt that they were effective. This is the major reason why LePage did so well in Oxford County. (The major reason why LePage didn't do as well in other working-class regions of Maine is parochialism, see my article here for more on that.)
LePage’s campaign themes were in marked contrast to those used by the Republicans in New Hampshire. The New Hampshire Republicans ran campaigns that were much more geared toward middle-class and upper-middle-class suburbanites, generally in the southern half of the state. They didn’t really try to attract the votes of working-class voters in mill towns, like those in Coös County. And as it happened, Governor Hassan wasn’t the only Democrat to do very well in Coös County in 2014. State Senator Jeff Woodburn won re-election by a larger margin than he won by in 2012 (a feat accomplished by only one other Democratic state senator in New Hampshire). And Senator Shaheen received 62 percent of the vote in Coös County in 2014, making it her best county in the state. This is a big deal, as in almost every statewide election in New Hampshire, the Democrat’s best county is either Cheshire or Grafton. I suspect that one reason why Shaheen did so well in Coös is that the proud New Hampshireites of Coös County didn’t appreciate Scott Brown’s carpetbagging.
This divergence of election results in Coös County, New Hampshire and Oxford County, Maine is undoubtedly one of the best examples from the 2014 elections of how campaigns matter.
I hope you enjoyed reading, and I welcome any comments or questions!