John Edwards' momentum in Iowa has the Southern Political Report predicting Edwards getting 41%(!) of the vote in the Iowa caucuses. They are basing the following numbers on "reallocated" votes. Follow me after the jump for a snippet:
Using the reallocation methodology InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today, the reallocated final outcome would be:
Edwards: 41%
Clinton: 34%
Obama: 25%
In my previous diary entry, one of the comments made derided my statement that John Edwards was the "second choice" among many Iowa voters and would be the primary beneficiary of any second round voting. This study backs up prior polls on this very question (and my prior assertion to that effect).
Critically, Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.
Ahem. I hate to say I told you so, but....
If this prediction holds up, the momentum should give Edwards the cash and free media attention he will need to carry him to the Democratic nomination...not to mention the fact that it will give his supporters a big boost of adrenaline to carry on the fight.
Even with my pundits writing Edwards off and the lack of coverage of his campaign in mainstream news stories, John Edwards just might end up being the dark horse who becomes the talk of the town come January 4.