For the first time ever I will get to vote in the primary in a congressional race and it really have implications for the fall General election. Many pundits are weighing into this race. Often people seek to conflate this potential race with the 2006 Primary between Tammy Duckworth, Christine Cegelis and Lindy Scott. In doing so, I find in talking to people that the outcome is pre-ordained in the minds of some Democratic Party voters. Either this is redemption for the Party insiders snatching away a nomination from grassroots activist in the form of Tammy Duckworth or it’s more of the same the party insiders will win again, as the current narrative goes. I say it’s neither.
Any attempt to read past results into future outcomes went out the window with redistricting. The newly draw 8th congressional captures more Democratic vote. It moves away from points far north as Antioch and moves more East-West in its formation from Elk Grove to Elgin, Illinois. This shift changes the calculations for the Republicans and the Democrats. While the Republicans struggle to find a candidate to represent this newly created district, Democrats enjoy the riches of having two quality candidates as choices. I decided to put together the strengths and weaknesses as I see them when asked by my neighbors in the district. I am pretty brutally honest when talking to neighbors and prefer to engage one-on-one, but I’ll let you in to give you a feel for the district.
Duckworth Strengths & Potential Weaknesses
Tammy Duckworth has a compelling story. Her background in the military will help with some swing voters. Her service to veterans at the state and national level give her a unique view on this important issue. Couple that with a Masters degree in international affairs, her foreign policy credentials rise and we get a view to the type of committees she would seek to serve on day one. This is important because the District gets a clear view to the areas our potential representative will seek to lend expertise in Congress.
Tammy Duckworth has the benefit of running for Federal Office in 2006. She has taken fire literally in real life and in a General Election against a formidable Republican opponent. The prior lessons from 2006 will serve her well going forward. In many ways, she will be able to make the adjustment to the new district easier, because she understands the need to pivot from the primary to the general election next fall. While she gets in the race after Raja built support among party activist, getting in at this time may expose ‘soft’ support and lead to more cross over Democrats as voters go through the process. While she has the National Security chops, crafting an economic message that makes sense for the entire district will be the challenge.
The newly drawn 8th Congressional District has economic diversity. While a voter living in Elk Grove may be concerned with quality of life issues, a voter in Elgin and Carpentersville will be concerned about jobs. There are areas that are Blue Collar and areas that are Suburban hometown communities and then we have Bedroom communities in between. While her story will draw people in the district toward her, an Economic plan that works for the district will get the votes. There is also the elephant in the room which many party activists for Raja will seek to exploit and it’s already around the blogosphere, her time working for Rod Blagojevich. In many respects, this is grasping at straws.
But this is residual anger left over from the 2006 Primary against Christine Cegelis, a popular figure of left leaning voters and two time Democratic Congressional candidate. The challenge for Tammy Duckworth is could she lean into that punch and continue against an onslaught that will paint her as an outsider. The attacks will start subtle at meet ups and build into the winter filings and Primary in March. The question is: does she indentify this and shut it down and get back to the issues.
Another disadvantage which could be minimized in a hurry is being 400,000 behind in fundraising. She has two natural constituencies that can’t be ignored. One, many of the women groups will be a good source of fundraising and second the Veterans groups which are more national in their donor bases and can raise money in a hurry. Look for the gap to be closed. Will she be able to make up falling behind with a campaign infrastructure and volunteer base? While every candidate gets a pop when they announce, ultimately it has to be determined who will knock on doors and gather the signatures.
Krishnamoorthi Strengths & Potential Weaknesses
Raja Krishnamoorthi has more of a home grown story. He grew up in the center of the state, lives in Hoffman Estates Illinois, and went to Harvard Law School. He left a job at a prominent downtown Chicago Law Firm to work in public service as a Deputy Illinois Treasurer. He has early ties to President Obama early in 2008. He is a fresh face with some experience as a candidate as well. He ran unsuccessfully for Illinois Comptroller losing in the primary in 2010.
While he has experience as a candidate, some may not rate that the same as Duckworth. His number against David Miller, a South side of Chicago Democrat who is African-American, cannot be transposed on to today as a predictor of future results in the newly created 8th congressional district. Raja still lost that race, meaning he did not build the broad coalition in other areas to win. This will be a question going forward: will he build the coalitions in all the areas?
Will he overload resources in some areas at the expense of others? Can his message adjust to the diversity of the district? His background in Business should help him in fundraising. But will his message be overloaded toward business and can he make the pivot toward messaging to blue collar voters? By losing the primary to David Miller he was never able to display an ability to pivot and grow coalitions. Will this hurt him in the General? Early money will help. Raja K’s campaign collected at the end of the June 30th filing period 400,000.
If these supporters show what is called the “loyalty index” and give more money that should help him in the fall. If upon examination of his contributions it is determined that small donor donations are dominate this should help him. Raja has a campaign infrastructure in place and this will help him greatly in getting out of the gate with the petitions.
Unlike Duckworth it’s tougher to get a feel for the type of committees Raja K would seek to serve on. Given his background, Small Business Committee and Banking would seem like a good fit. His challenge is giving voters a view to the future and how his experience could create jobs and steer resources back to the district. In many ways, he has to answer this question at every campaign stop because he is up against a celebrity candidate as Illinois is concerned. Results will have to be his calling card and telling us how he’ll get them.
Republicans Candidate and X factor
This race will be shaped by the Republican candidate as well. This is where it’s gets tricky. Joe Walsh the current congressman in the 8th Congressional district is quite frankly unelectable. This happened in large measure due to contraction due to redistricting on the one hand and the expanded pool of potential voters in a Presidential election year.
There is talk on the Republican side to convince Peter Roskam to leave the 6th congressional district and run in the 8th and have Joe Walsh run in the 6th and avoid a Republican versus Republican match up in the 14th. This is pretty inside baseball and plays out like 3 Dimensional chess. More to the point, it’s not going to happen. Yeah I called out the next Republican play. Peter Roskam isn’t going to put at risk his seniority with House Republicans to take one for the team for some rookie, Joe Walsh, who will not win in the 6th because he is too far to the right for the district and risk losing a race in the 8th.
While a long decision process for the Republicans helps the Democratic Party in 8th CD. It can also hurt the party because it makes it harder to define a Republican opponent and do a test run on the Get Out the Vote program in the primary. If Roskam stays away from this race as I suspect it will help because the Republican that runs will not have institutional support and it will likely be a self funder less likely to carry a message to appeal to Reagan Democrats and Independents. On the issue of Reagan Democrats and Independents an outside lane is opened up in the Democratic Primary on this front.
A third candidate while unlikely is possible because there is space left over in the party that can be tapped with Tammy and Raja claiming similar voter bases. A third X factor can shake up the race if that candidate is a self funding moderate who runs as a Democrat. The reality, there is still time to get in. A win in a Presidential year may lead to a long stint holding this district. This could entice an X factor into the race. The Party infrastructure will be less likely to guard its flank because all the focus is on two candidates.
How does it end in March?
It ends with the candidate who can craft an economic message that matches the diversity of the district and can display their skills set and show voters a view to the future. In fact, the winner of this primary could hold this seat could for the next decade and soon the race will be shaped in those terms.