As you may have heard, Congress is back in Session this week (YEAH or BOOO, depending how you feel about Congress these days). And yes, the "DO NOTHING" Congress is coming back to a long list of things it either should or must GET DONE.
From the Syrian Resolution, to the Budget to avoid a Government shut down, to raising the Debt Limit to avoid default, to the Farm Bill (with SNAP hopefully) to avoid a huge increase in the cost of farm products, and that doesn't even include legislation on Immigration Reform or Gun Safety.
So can this "DO NOTHING" Congress Get-R-Done? I'll explore that question in terms of the above list, after the jump /\ over the orange squiggle.
As we go through the list of legislation Congress has before them, keep in mind that this Congress has been one of the least productive in history (primarily due to inaction in the House) and that they are now facing one of the largest legislative agendas that should or must get done since they convened in January. Whether they get it all done is one question we'll look at, but what gets passed is also a concern, and frankly I'm not optimistic.
1. First up, the Syrian Resolution:
Now I'm not going into the "Pros" and Cons" of it here. God knows there are enough other Diaries already posted for that purpose. I'm simply looking at how it will eat up legislative time which is pretty limited already.
We know the Senate Foreign Relations Committee passed a Syrian Resolution (by 10 to 7 vote) and that Reid put it on the floor on Friday. He has scheduled a Cloture Vote on it for Wednesday of this week. No idea if someone is filibustering this resolution or if Reid has simply been told that it will be filibustered by someone in the opposition. But it seems this must be the case because why else would Reid set up a 60 vote threshold to end debate. Anyway, the last Senate Whip Count I saw has it between 23-24 FOR, 16-25 AGAINST and 26-57 UNDECIDED. Not good if you're looking for 60 votes to end debate. If Reid doesn't get it Wednesday, he will likely schedule another cloture vote at the end of the week, meaning Senate action on the resolution will continue into next week. If he does achieve cloture on Wednesday, there will be 30 hours of post-cloture debate (unless he gets Unanimous Consent to shorten the required 30 hours), meaning a final vote for Senate passage on Friday.
Meanwhile, the House just plans to wait to see what the Senate does, so they won't be taking any action on a resolution until the beginning of next week at the earliest. Where it goes from there and how much legislative time it will chew up is anybody's guess. But since those favoring such a resolution (including Boehner and the Republican leadership) don't have the House votes they need right now, I don't see them scheduling a vote right away. They will probably postpone the vote to give as much time as possible for arm twisting. Also, if the resolution gets amended by the House, which is not at all unlikely, it will either have to go to Conference or go back to the Senate for final passage.
Anyway, by one estimate I saw, it looks like Congress will be dealing with a Syrian Resolution for most, if not all of September.
2. Funding the Government (Budget Bill or Continuing Resolution (CR)):
Remember way, way back in mid-August before Syria took all the oxygen out of the room when all we (us DailyKos folks) and the media were talking about was the possibility of a GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN over the budget? Well, even though virtually no one here or in the media is talking about it any longer, it is still there. Remember, all the raucous talk in August among the right wing crazies about Defunding Obamacare by threatening a government shutdown if it was not taken out of next years budget? Well there still around. Even though a number of Republicans in the leadership are
shying away from a government shutdown, they probably will seek some way to appease their rabid base to avoid having a budget or CR get passed in the House with Democrats and only a handful of Republicans.
When we last had action on this, the Senate had actually passed a new Budget, but the House balked at taking it up or even passing a Budget of their own so it could go to Congress. Now looking at a September 30th deadline (the government will run out of funding and at least partially shutdown) and the ongoing debate over the Syrian Resolution, there is just not enough time in the September legislative calendar to pass a Budget, even if the House wanted to, which they don't. The best (and probably most likely) outcome that we can hope for now is that both bodies pass some sort of a CR to fund the government at current levels for a number of weeks or months past September 30th to avoid a shutdown. But that means continued Sequestration cuts which Republicans hate because of the military cuts, and we hate because of the cuts to social services. Regardless of the fact that both sides hate it, it looks like we are in for several more weeks of Sequestration and the continued drag on our economy and jobs it is having.
3. Debt Ceiling Raise:
This is the other looming fiscal crisis that everyone is no longer talking about since the 24/7 conversation over Syria started, but is still there. Like in the above fiscal problem, the Congress must agree on and pass a bill to raise the debt ceiling before September 30th to avoid the Government defaulting on its debt which would cause a world-wide fiscal disaster (Note: I've seen an article that the real deadline my be October 15th since Treasury may be able to juggle accounts until then.). Also, like the above, there is that whole "defund Obamacare" thing that plays into the matter as well as Republicans insatiable desire for other cuts in the name of deficit reduction. However, unlike the Budget issue, Boehner has not shown any sign of backing down. Although no one really thinks there will be a government default (the Republican's Masters on Wall Street don't want that to happen), the Republican leadership will likely continue to insist on some further cuts in social programs (in addition to the current Sequester) as part of a deal to bring a debt ceiling raise bill to the House floor.
Again, while I don't see Congress allowing a default, I don't see how we get a debt ceiling raise without some further cuts which the Republican leadership needs to help quiet its rabid base who are crazy and either don't understand or don't give a damn about the ramifications of a default.
4. Farm Bill:
This is another one of those bills with a looming deadline (not exactly sure when, but its soon). If not passed before the deadline, Federal subsidies to farmers will revert back to what they were decades ago, which will greatly increase (possibly triple) the cost of the farm products we all purchase. For instance, I seen some articles saying the price of a gallon of milk could greatly surpass the price of a gallon of gas, perhaps up to $10 per gallon. The problem is that this farm subsidy bill (which Republicans love because it is welfare for the Big Agra-Business lobby) has long included funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), or more commonly known as Food Stamps (which the Republicans hate because it feeds poor people). This NY Times article explains what's at stake.
While the Senate has passed a Farm Bill with some cuts to SNAP, the House passed a Farm Bill without any SNAP since they want SNAP to be considered separately (i.e., they want to kill it or at least severely defund it.). Since the House and Senate have refused to take up the others bill or go to conference on this, we are presently stuck with a deadline looming. Still, since there is a lot of pressure from the Agra-Business lobby to pass a Farm Bill before the deadline, its likely that something will get passed. But that something will probably contain more cuts to SNAP then there already are in the Senate's Bill in order for enough Republicans in the House to sign on for passage.
5. Other Bills:
Above are matters which Congress will or must deal with before they recess for the November elections. But that still leaves matters such as Immigration Reform and Gun Safety legislation. While I hate to seem negative, I don't see much time left in the legislative calendar for these issues, especially when considering the production rate of this Congress. At best, these things might come up before years end, but not until the above 4 matters are dealt with in some way.
In summary, I think Congress will deal with Syrian Resolution (in some manner) and get something done on the two fiscal matters and the Farm Bill. But, I don't think we (us Progressives) will be all that happy about what they get done. Sorry, to seem so negative, but I calls' em as I sees' em!
Got to go away for a little while, so feel free to talk amongst yourselves. Will check back later to respond to any questions. TAH TAH!