There is a lot of talk regarding Michael Sam today. A lot of it is bullshit.
A popular theme goes something like this: The NFL has declared that openly gay players will face retribution and be paid less. Or: Michael Sam will definitely be drafted lower because he came out on Sunday night.
I understand the larger points (homophobia, workplace discrimination, etc) but attributing the anonymous quotes of NFL assistants to the NFL is unfair. As is suggesting that these 3 guys, who don't make any decisions for the team they work for, constitute the official position of all 32 teams.
First of all, the NFL Draft is a crapshoot. Every player that is considered for the draft has potential issues, on the field and off. No player is a sure thing. For every player drafted in the first round who never becomes even a marginal starter there is at least one other player who went undrafted and became a legitimate starter in the NFL. The Super Bowl was littered with both. Also, an NFL Draft board is configured in tiers. You group players based on your pre-draft grades and there is little separation between, say, the 15th best Defensive End and the 25th best Defensive End. When it is a team’s turn to pick they consult their pre-draft grades and usually whittle the possible selections down to between 3 and 5 players- all with identical grades. From here, they go around the room asking scouts and evaluators for their recommendation, followed by assistant coaches, and so on until it gets to the General Manager or whoever makes the final decision. The Decider is usually wrong. Yep, most draft picks don’t pan out and most don’t have long careers in the NFL. So when presented with 2 identical talents I have no doubt that some GMs will use yesterday’s announcement to “break the tie” and select the non-Michael Sam prospect. It’s not right. But here's the thing: there is no way to prove today that a GM that passes on Sam is wrong. After all, he has not played a single down in the NFL.
Secondly, the NFL does not have one person making draft picks for the entire league. This may seem obvious but you wouldn’t know it today. The apparent theme going around the interwebs is that the NFL has decreed from on-high that Michael Sam will now be selected 2 rounds later than he would have if the draft were held 2 days ago. There is a common saying among players entering the draft, “It only takes one.” It only takes one General Manager to believe that you are a first round pick to make you a first round pick. So just because one General Manager has a problem with the potential "circus" this in no way means that every General Manager does. In fact, some may want the attention. When Tim Tebow became draft eligible there were scouts who believed Tebow would never be able to play Quarterback in the NFL (you know with their well-known bias against guy’s who can’t complete throws to open targets). But there were others that were convinced that he was the next great leader who could lead any team to the Super Bowl. There was a group of people who believed Tebow would be drafted lower only because of his well-known religious views, and another that thought he would be drafted higher precisely because of his outspoken religious views. Tim Tebow was drafted in the first round. And this proves nothing. It did not make the guys who thought he couldn’t play right and it didn’t make the guys who thought he was the next Tom Brady right. The only thing it proved was that the Denver Broncos agreed with the folks that were wrong. I kid, I kid. It proved that the NFL Draft is an inexact science where guys who get paid to succeed by evaluating talent can differ wildly on the same prospects.
The third point is that it is easy to say bigoted and offensive things behind the shield of anonymity. Most of these quotes are coming from people who wouldn’t have dared to have their remarks attributed to them. That is a win for our side as these views are certainly no longer mainstream. The cold reality, however, is that these bigots are telling us anonymously how they actually feel. What keeps me optimistic is knowing the story of Conner Mertens, the Division III kicker at Willamette University who came out as bi-sexual to his teammates first (and then to everyone else), and learning about Sam’s teammates at the University of Missouri. In both instances the teammates of Mertens and Sam either were extremely supportive, or kept quiet. There have not been any stories that have come out that suggest that their experiences were anything but a net positive. This is not to pretend that there isn’t a group of players who privately insist on making juvenile and hurtful remarks. I am sure this happens. But it must now be done in private amongst like-minded bigots or behind the promise of anonymity. Another win for the good guys. And, yes, we are winning.
So there is a lot of talk about Michael Sam today. And while I agree with most of it, I felt the need as a liberal and die-hard football fan to address some of the issues that I have taken with today’s coverage. The story of the first openly gay draft candidate is awesome news. But trying to speculate on NFL prospects is not easy and smart people have been fired for being wrong too often. The football story about Michael Sam is not all that different from Johnny Manziel. There are scouts that believe “Johnny Football” should be the first pick in the draft, while others think he will be a bust because he went to frat parties while he was still in college (GASP). There will surely be scouts that think Sam is undraftable because of his baggage. But today I am optimistic that there are GMs that will embrace this opportunity (whether out of self-preservation or not makes little difference to me). After all, it only takes one.