Well another regular season of hockey is officially over and this Saturday we will know who will be drafting Connor McDavid #1 overall in June at the draft and by that token who will be drafting Jack Eichel #2. Sure surprises can happen but are rare.
However, rather than focus on the sad, let's look at the 16 teams and their fans who are thrilled to be making the Stanley Cup Playoffs this year. I will take a look at each match-up and provide what will likely be a completely wrong prediction for all match-ups. Finishing up, I will predict the the Cup Finals including who will win. then we can all come back in June and see how incredibly wrong I was.
Follow me below the uncleaned ice surface for the full slate of match-ups.
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Last season, the NHL changed their playoff structure to go back to the Divisional match-ups pre-95 with the exception of the Wild Cards which can cause teams to swap Divisions for the first 2 rounds. This allows for a bracket challenge.
The NHL is currently running one (can be found here). Click the link to participate. Winning the challenge will net you a trip the Awards show in Vegas in June.
All stat figures come from either http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ or nhl.com
We will start out West. (Teams listed first have home ice advantage.)
Anaheim Ducks vs Winnipeg Jets
For the second straight season, Anaheim is the top team out West. The Ducks had the league’s best record in one goal games but struggled when the games were decided by multiple goals. This could bode well for them in the typically low scoring, tight playoff games. The one interesting stat out of Anaheim is their coach, Bruce Boudreau, has not made it past the second round of the playoffs ever. Can this be the year?
The Jets have made the playoffs for only the second time in franchise history and for the first time since moving to Winnipeg from Atlanta. There is no doubt the fans will be pumped for the series as they have already been crowd-surfing down the streets. Their home arena is certainly one of, if not, the loudest in the league. Goaltending may be an issue here. Do they go with their veteran, who is posting the best numbers in his career by far, or try out the young up-and-comer? They’ll have to figure it out fast or they will be relying on their ability to possess the puck to keep it out the net.
Going with experience over youth here and predicting the Ducks in 5.
Vancouver Canucks vs Calgary Flames
Vancouver is another team in the midst of a goaltending controversy (that will be a running theme). Newly signed Ryan Miller was supposed to be the number 1, but after an injury backup Eddie Lack has seemingly taken the reigns. However, neither is better than average (Miller being the worse one). The Canucks are also very top heavy in scoring. Shut down their top line and you could easily win 1 or 2 - nothing. The team has experimented with moving winger Radim Vrbata off the top line; we’ll see if that continues.
The Flames made the playoffs despite every analytical expert predicting them to crash and burn at some point during the season. They are by far the worst possession team that made the playoffs. The second worst, Ottawa, was 4.4 % points better. However, they won more games while trailing in the 3rd period than any other team making them super resilient, very necessary come playoff time. This was still true even after losing top defenseman Mark Giordano who was likely going to be voted the best defenseman in the league before a season ending injury in late February (still finished 5th in scoring on the team). Can they continue to defy the numbers or will they be this year’s Colorado Avalanche?
This is one is tough to predict, but as an accountant, I am going with the numbers and say Vancouver in 6.
St. Louis Blues vs Minnesota Wild
St. Louis is another team with a goaltending controversy as both of the goaltenders have virtually identical if average stats. The Blues are very top heavy getting almost all their points from their top two lines and their top defense pair. Not always a good thing in the playoffs. The Blues have high expectations and their coach, Ken Hitchcock, is finishing his fourth year as coach. He rarely makes it past that on any team he’s coach so this could be last chance there. Even if he moves on, there will be many teams likely interested in his services (I would not mind him moving to Brooklyn with the Isles).
The Wild are one of the few teams without a goaltending controversy as they have the best goaltender over the second half of the season in Devan Dubnyk. Dubnyk essentially resurrected a doomed career here and started 39 straight games (streak started before he was traded from the Coyotes), a season high for any goalie going back to 07-08 when Evgeny Nabokov started 43 straight. This series will likely be all about him in Minny as he has not played a post season game yet. The Wild also have Ryan Suter who seemingly never leaves the ice playing a league leading TOI/G of 29:03. Their PP is near the bottom of the league, but their PK is near the top. They are not a high scoring team and rely very much on team defense to limit goals. That could help them against a two-line team in the Blues.
With so much on the line, I am predicting the Blues win in 7.
Nashville Predators vs Chicago Blackhawks
Nashville enters the playoffs after losing the last six games of the regular season. Not really the way you want to start the post season. However, they still boast one of the best bluelines in the league. That will help facing one of the best playoff teams in the last 5 seasons. A change in coaching brought a more offensive system this year. Also helpful was the return of top goaltender Pekka Rinne. They’ll need to forget about the end of the season and focus on what made them almost unbeatable for the first 50 games. It also helps that they have home ice since they won 9 more game at home than on the road.
Everyone thought there was doom and gloom in Chicago when Patrick Kane went down with a broken collarbone. Most expected him to be out for most of the playoffs. However it was just announced today that he has been cleared to play in game 1 on Weds. It’s amazing how fast athletes can recover from injuries. Chicago also could elect to start backup Scott Darling over Corey Crawford, but that is unlikely. Do not rule out a quick shift if necessary. Scoring doesn’t come easily in Chicago, so look to them to win low scoring games and try to lockdown Nashville’s speed.
This could have been a toss-up, but with Kane back, look for Chicago to rally behind him. Hawks in 5.
Now onto the East.
Montreal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators
The Canadiens finished first in the Atlantic Division thanks to stellar goaltending from likely Hart Trophy (MVP) winner Carey Price. Price was nothing short of outstanding this year carrying a team that finished 20th in goals scored to the top of the division. The Habs smallish size won’t help them in the rough and tumble playoffs and will have to continue to get stellar goaltending. They were also weak when it came to the possession metrics finishing 20th in shot attempts for %.
The Senators staged on the greatest runs going 16-3-3 in the final 22 games to grab the 1st Wild Card spot. First year goalie Andrew Hammond (nicknamed the Hamburgler and yes, McDonald’s has offered him free food for life) started his first 12 games without giving up more than 2 goals and only lost one game (overtime loss) and finished with a record of 20-1-2. Not bad for a first year guy. The question is of course, is he for real? That’s pretty much the only story out of Ottawa besides GM Bryan Murray’s battle with Stage 4 cancer.
It is a goaltending duel to end all duels. I am predicting a Sens win as they are not just the hottest team to end the season, but they are playing for their GM. Ottawa takes it in 7.
Tampa Bay Lighting vs Detroit Red Wings
The Lighting enter the playoffs as the highest scoring team in the league. They also sport an amazing 19-3 record when Ryan Callahan scores a goal this season. This is on top of not losing a single game in which he scored a goal last season after he was traded there. They are young, fast team lead by Steven Stamkos and breakout star Tyler Johnson. The big question will be goaltending as it is near the league average and near the bottom of playoff teams.
While Tampa may have issues in goal, the Red Wing aren’t even sure who their number one goaltender is, Jimmy Howard or Petr Mrazek. Mrazek will get the start in game one, but after that, who knows? Detroit has not missed the playoffs in 24 years which gives them a ton of experience. Not surprising considering they are one of the oldest teams in the league. They were a middle of the road team as they only clinched a playoff spot in the last week of the season. Can the Wings put together one more run before their coach likely moves on? (That’s the speculation) We’ll see.
The young, high scoring Lightning take this series in 6 after stumbling at the beginning.
New York Rangers vs Pittsburgh Penguins
The Rangers advance to the playoffs on the back of their best season in the franchise's 89 year history winning the President's Trophy (best regular season record) by recording 113 points and they did it without having their star goaltender, Henrik Lundqvist, for about a month and a half due to him taking a puck to the neck. The Rangers come into the series supporting some the best "puck luck" in the league. Their shooting % (9.61) is pretty high and their PDO (a measure adding save % to shooting %) of 101.9 is first by a good margin. PDO itself tends to regress to 100 over time. With that being said, the Rangers have a well balanced team and an excellent coach and should be a formidable opponent for any team.
The Pens come into the series having avoided one of the biggest collapses in NHL history winning only 4 of their last 15 games falling into the 2nd wild card spot. And that's only the beginning of Pittsburgh's problems. The team is without their best defenseman, Kris Letang, who suffered a recent concussion and could be done, not just for the season but for his career. Additionally, they are backstopped by goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, who hasn't had a good playoff performance since the Penguins won the Cup in 2009. While no team with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin can be counted out, the rest of the Penguins are mediocre at best. It will be difficult to see them overcome their shortcomings.
I am predicting the Rangers in 5 but a sweep is not out of the question.
Washington Capitals vs New York Islanders
The Islanders and the Capitals have not met in the playoffs since 1993. That series ended with one of the worst cheap shots in NHL history as the Caps’, Dale Hunter laid a late shoulder check to the Isles top scorer, Pierre Turgeon, after Turgeon scored the final goal in game 6. That check earned Hunter a 21 game suspension (longest in history at the time). Turgeon missed most of the next series with a separated shoulder and was never the same player again. So suffice it to say, the Islanders fans are hoping their team is out for blood this year.
The teams come into the series evenly matched. The Isles are the better offensive team and have significantly more balanced scoring. The Capitals have the goaltending edge. Coaching definitely favors the Capitals as Jack Capuano, the Isles’ coach, has made many head-scratching line-up decisions over the course of the season not to mention his poor in-game decision-making. The Isles ended the season second only to the LA Kings in possession stats but have been declining over the second half of the season and their puck luck (PDO) has been downright awful. In addition, they have lost quite a few games when leading by multiple goals in the third period.
There are 2 big questions that surrounds the Capitals. The first is which Ovechkin shows up for the series? The lazy, uncaring one of years past or a more invested one this season. One could think the coaching change would bring about a new Ovechkin, but one never knows. The other can their top goalie, Brayden Holtby, maintain his stellar play after playing 73 regular season games. Only 5 out 55 goalies that played 70+ games in the regular season have won the Cup.
The series could go either way, but I am predicting the Islanders want to keep the Coliseum alive for more than one round before moving to Brooklyn. Isles in 6.
Finally for my Cup series predictions:
Chicago Blackhawks will cruise through the playoffs on the back of a returning Patrick Kane going to the finals for the third time in 5 years. The Tampa Bay Lightning will have a rough go of it but emerge as the Eastern Conference's rep to the Stanley Cup Finals. Battered and bruised, they'll put up a good fight but ultimately lose.
The Blackhawks win the Cup 4 games to 2.
Enjoy the playoffs everyone!
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