Some Republican strategists have been selling themselves on the myth that if the Supreme Court settles the issue of same-sex marriage nationwide this summer, Republican presidential candidates will get off the hook of having to answer marriage equality questions on the campaign trail.
They can simply say, "It's settled law," goes the thinking. Well, here's some insight from James Hohmann into how well that's going to go over with the GOP base in Iowa—site of the first presidential contest next year.
“If you dodge the question, then it’s the kiss of death,” said social conservative Sam Clovis, who finished second behind Joni Ernst in last year’s Iowa GOP Senate primary. “Candidates have got to be declarative about where they stand. Period.”
“If you’re not vocally pro-life and pro-traditional marriage, I don’t think you can win here because you’re going to get hammered,” added Clovis. “Maybe you could win in New Hampshire, but it’s a different culture.”
Oops! Looks like establishment Republicans forgot to consult their base, which really couldn't care less whether candidates coming out of the Iowa caucuses are electable nationwide. That's what makes Iowa social conservatives a Democrat's best friend.
Hohmann reports that over a day of interviews, Iowa Republicans were clear that a candidate's response to the marriage question would be "a litmus test" issue for them. That's likely at least one of the reasons that Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney steered clear of Iowa last weekend during Rep. Steve King's "freedom" summit. Of course, there's some GOP candidates who also don't care about being electable nationwide. Fortunately for Democrats, those candidates hope to torpedo the rest of the GOP field.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal are calling for a federal constitutional amendment that would allow states to ignore a Supreme Court ruling striking down bans on gay marriage. The establishment candidates, like Mitt Romney, are bound to be asked whether they support or oppose such an effort.
Don't worry, Cruz and Jindal will have company in trying to sack the rest of the field. Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Ben Carson will have plenty to say on the matter.