The one that Democrats want: Maggie Hassan
National Democrats have been working hard to recruit Gov. Maggie Hassan to challenge freshman Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte in swingy New Hampshire, and a new survey from PPP finds that a matchup between the two would
start out tight. Hassan would edge Ayotte 46-45, similar to the early numbers we've seen
from other pollsters. And while Ayotte posts a meh 40-43 job approval rating, Hassan is on considerably stronger ground with a 53-34 score. Some of these voters who give a thumbs-up to the governor may be more right-leaning folks who are fine having Hassan in the statehouse but are wary of a Democratic Senate, but it does give her a cushion.
Hassan's status as her party's top option is confirmed by another pairing PPP tested, which finds Rep. Annie Kuster trailing Ayotte by a much steeper 49-38 margin. Hassan hasn't yet said that she'll forgo re-election to run for Senate, but both parties are working under the assumption that she'll take on Ayotte.
During the 2010 GOP primary, tea partier Ovide Lamontagne came incredibly close to denying Ayotte the nomination, and he hasn't ruled out a rematch. However, he's not going to have an easy time gaining traction against the incumbent, despite her efforts to moderate her image: PPP gives Ayotte a 57-32 lead in a hypothetical primary. Ayotte's 60-26 approval rating with her own party could be better, but she's far from dire territory. Lamontagne, who was his party's gubernatorial nominee in 2012, posts a 49-20 favorable rating, not bad at all but still weaker than Ayotte's. But if Lamontagne did pull off a miracle and emerge as the Republican nominee, it would not be good news for Team Red. Lamontagne trails Hassan 54-35, and Kuster 43-39.
If Hassan does indeed leave Concord for a shot at Washington, both parties will be working hard to win the governor's mansion. Head below the jump to see how that race might unfold.
It's far from clear who will end up running for this open seat, but PPP tested out several combinations. For the Democrats, they included Hassan, in case she runs again, as well as state Rep. Jackie Cilley (who lost the gubernatorial nomination to Hassan in 2012) and Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern. For the GOP, PPP asked about state Senate Majority Leader Jeb Bradley (who is also a former congressman), Nashua Mayor Donnalee Lozeau, and Executive Councilor Chris Sununu (brother of ex-Sen. John Sununu).
• Hassan 53, Bradley 36
• Hassan 55, Bradley 25
• Hassan 52, Sununu 35
• Cilley 31, Bradley 37
• Cilley 32, Lozeau 26
• Cilley 36, Sununu 37
• Van Ostern 31, Bradley 37
• Van Ostern 31, Lozeau 27
• Van Ostern 34, Sununu 37
If Hassan runs for re-election, she looks secure, but the other matchups are much more fluid, with huge portions of voters undecided. Lozeau and Sununu have both
expressed interest in this seat, while everyone else has been much more quiet about their plans. (Democrats in particular are waiting to see what Hassan does.)
The Granite State is prone to wild swings, and the national climate might decide next year's contests in the end. But as PPP shows, Hassan would let the Democrats put a Senate seat in play that they badly need to win, and the DSCC will keep working to recruit her until she gives them a definitive answer.