From The Progressive Populist
President Obama finally earned the Nobel Peace Prize he was given in 2009 and it’s driving Republicans crazy.
Secretary of State John Kerry also deserves credit for leading the 20 months of talks, along with representatives from Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany, getting Iranians to sign onto the deal to give up their pursuit of nuclear weapons and agreeing to allow UN inspectors to check their work. Now the challenge for Obama and Kerry is to get Congress to give peace a chance.
A solid majority of Americans support the agreement; a poll for the Washington Post and ABC News (July 20) showed 56% in favor and 37% opposed. While Republicans hope to make inroads into the Jewish vote, a poll conducted in June for J Street, a progressive Jewish group, found that 59% of American Jews support a final agreement with Iran that increases inspections in exchange for economic sanctions relief. And Jewish support grows to 78% for an agreement that imposes intrusive inspections of Iran and caps its enrichment of uranium as a level far below what is necessary to make a nuclear weapon in exchange for phased relief from US and international sanctions, as the final deal does.
However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains implacably opposed to the Iran deal. The leading Israel lobby group, AIPAC, is expecting to spend as much as $40 million on an ad campaign through the cover group “Citizens for a Nuclear Free Iran” to put pressure on Democratic members of Congress to nullify Obama’s policy.
Many former senior intelligence and national security officials in Israel disagree with Netanyahu and believe the historic agreement is in the national security interest of the State of Israel.
Jonathan Alter in TheDailyBeast.com (July 21), quoted Ami Ayalon, a former head of Shin Bet, the Israeli internal security service, and a former chief of the Israeli Navy, saying the issue “‘is not black and white,” but he reeled off a list of former defense ministers and chiefs of Shin Bet and Mossad who agree with him that “when it comes to Iran’s nuclear capability, this [deal] is the best option.”
Jeremy Ben-Ami of J Street told the Washington Post the battle shapes up as “The foreign policy fight of a generation… It pits folks who brought us the Iraq war and whole neocon worldview versus the Obama worldview and the concept that we can confront enemies with diplomacy.”
Israel’s allies against the deal include military contractors who would profit from war with Iran and oil companies, who lost billions of dollars in the value of oil reserves after the UN Security Council unanimously approved the deal on July 20. Crude oil prices fell below $50 a barrel for the first time in more than three months on speculation that Iran will add to the global glut of oil.
While some oil companies hope to move in to help Iran rev up its production, others see the infusion of Iranian oil blotting out their hopes of returning to $100-a-barrel oil anytime soon.
Relaxation of sanctions on Iran not only will allow Iranians to improve their standard of living and potentially increase exposure of young Iranians to Western influences; reopening oil markets will help keep gas bills low for American drivers.
If Congress overrides Obama’s veto and kills the deal, no one seriously disputes that the sanctions regime would collapse. “Russia is already planning its new business deals with Iran and the Europeans aren’t far behind,” Alter noted. “The idea that a tougher United States could by itself force better terms is a dangerous fantasy. With rejection, we would get the worst of both worlds. Iran would have much of its oil money back, but without the most intrusive inspections in history (24/7 monitoring of its nuclear facilities), 98% reductions in uranium stockpiles, and the many other provisions that sharply reduce its existential threat to Israel.”
If Israel and the Republicans risk a war full of unintended consequences to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capacity, Israeli intelligence estimates that US bunker-buster bombs would at best set back Iran’s nuclear program by two to four years, or roughly a fifth as long as required by the terms of the new deal, Ayalon said.
As for Israeli security concerns, the predominantly Jewish nation has at least 10 years to demonstrate that it is not a threat to Iran, which has no inherent enmity for Israel, beyond its concern for fellow Muslims in Palestine. Jewish communities in Iran date back to Biblical Persia. From the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948 until the fall of the Shah in 1979, Israel and Iran maintained close ties and Israel viewed Iran as a natural ally as a non-Arab power on the edge of the Arab world.
Relations suffered after Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew the Shah, but Israel still provided logistical support and sold arms to the Islamic Republic during Iran’s war with Iraq from 1980 to 1989. Hostility between Israel and Iran increased after the defeat of the Iraqi army during the first Gulf War in 1991.
The best way Israel could improve its security is to jettison Netanyahu, explore the opening to re-establish diplomatic relations with Iran and start negotiating seriously with duly elected Palestinians to recognize each others’ authorities.
See the Editorial at The Progressive Populist. Reposted with permission.