So, a few claims recently that “all the data” show Bernie as more ‘electable’ got me making mental lists yesterday. And then I started writing them down.
I present them here with no further commentary (though I think it’s obvious from the lengths of the two lists which side I personally come down on. )
Regardless of which side you come down on, I just think it’s important to remember that there’s a helluva lot more to ‘electability’ than a few polls on hypothetical match-ups. It’s a pretty complex topic.
Anyway, on to the lists — I did try to include everything I’d seen argued here on either side though I make no claim to have captured them all. Feel free to add your own in the comments:
Bernie More Electable / Hillary Less Electable
- (Some) Hypothetical Head To Head General Election Polls
- Hillary’s Unfavorables / “scandals”
- Assumed Ability to Bring New Voters
- Demographic appeal to millennials
- Better grass roots fundraising
- National press with a long history of Hillary hostility
Hillary More Electable/ Bernie Less Electable
- (Some) Hypothetical Head To Head General Election Polls
- Betting/Prediction Markets - Clear Favorite Against the Field to Win General
- What little direct polling there is on perceived electability (‘who do you think will win?’) has all been strongly Hillary
- Republicans Actions Show Clear Preference For Bernie (Rove ads, NV dirty tricks, etc)
- History - Extreme ideological candidates usually get blown out. Have never won. Ever.
- Stronger position with Demographic base (while Bernie’s appeal is to less certain voters)
- More establishment support in building ground game — long history of favors to call in, etc
- Appeal across a wider set of demographics
- Appeal across a wider geographic spectrum
- 50% of voters say they won’t even consider an atheist (single Gallup poll last summer)
- Not a ‘change election’ - Hillary advantage; ‘Change Election’ - Incumbent party usually screwed, Republican advantage
- Better overall fundraising
- Promise to raise taxes is usually political suicide in most areas of the country
- Sanders ‘unvetted’ (I prefer ‘untested’) - has never faced a serious negative attack wave, ability to withstand unknown
I left out “old” (because historically they both are) and “socialist” (because while I think it might be a liability, I think most of the rancor to it is already counted in the ‘promise to raise taxes’ item).
What did I miss?