While everyone on the ground in the UK seems to think “Remain” will win, including the leading voices of “Leave” such as Farage and Johnson, I will note that Sunderland -- an early reporting district -- has “Leave” way ahead of the benchmarks “Leave” was expected to get there...
00:30: Sunderland and Newcastle-upon-Tyne will declare. Leave should be well clear of Remain in Sunderland if Brexit is indeed going to happen. Anything short of a seven-point gap between Leave and Remain in Sunderland is very good news for Britain Stronger In Europe. Newcastle is finely balanced but ought to be better for Remain than Sunderland.
(source)
That 7% margin noted as a benchmark is consistent with the pre-referendum reporting I’ve seen.
It is something akin to an exit poll (and we know how those go) in terms of forecasting, albeit more concrete, but what I’ve seen is that if Sunderland shows more than a 6-7% lead for “Leave”, then “Leave” would be in good shape.
The embedded image shows Sunderland’s results, via the BBC’s reporting. 23% is more than 6-7%.
Take from that what you will.