Thought I’d summarize where the race stands today according to the major aggregation and/or forecasting sites. All numbers collected manually between 9:00 and 9:45 am
National Polling Averages
Pollster.com, 2-way |
C +4.0 |
47.7 |
43.7 |
Pollster.com, 3-WAY |
C +2.3 |
42.1 |
39.8 |
RCP, 2-WAY |
C +2.1 |
45.9 |
43.8 |
538 Polling Ave |
C +2.9 |
42.7 |
39.8 |
538 Adj Polling Ave |
C +1.1 |
42.1 |
41.0 |
Sam Wang Meta-Margin |
C +1.4 |
|
|
Clinton Win Probabilities:
Sam Wang, Random Drift |
68% |
Sam Wang, bayesian |
79% |
The Upshot |
69% |
Predictwise |
70% |
DailyKos |
64% |
538, POlls-Only |
51.5% |
538, POlls-Plus |
51.9% |
And a look at potential swing states…..
Swing States |
Upshot Win Prob |
538 Win Prob |
538 Poll Ave |
538 Adj Poll Ave |
538 Project Marg |
Virginia |
94%
|
73.2% |
C +5.9 |
C +3.9 |
C +4.0 |
NH |
84% |
58.5% |
C +5.6 |
C +1.7 |
C +1.7 |
PA |
81% |
64.1% |
C +4.9 |
C +2.4 |
C +2.3 |
WI |
74% |
68.8% |
C +5.9 |
C +3.4 |
C +3.3 |
CO |
71% |
56.9% |
C +2.2 |
C +0.7 |
C +1.3 |
FL |
57% |
40.2% |
C +1.1 |
T +1.8 |
T +1.7 |
NV |
49% |
41.5% |
T +0.7 |
T +3.0 |
T +1.5 |
NC |
45% |
36.2% |
C +0.1 |
T +2.2 |
T +2.3 |
OH |
39% |
34.2% |
T +0.6 |
T +2.8 |
T +2.6 |
IA |
33% |
27.8% |
T +2.1 |
T +5.1 |
T +4.0 |
AZ |
22% |
22.5% |
T +2.3 |
T +5.7 |
T +5.2 |
GA |
19% |
16% |
T +4.3 |
T +6.3 |
T +6.4 |